Tipsheet

There's a Clear Frontrunner in California's Governor Race, but It's Not Who You'd Expect

Amy Curtis
Amy Curtis  |  March 11, 2026 1:30 PM

As the race for California's next governor heats up, it looks like there's a clear frontrunner for the job, and it's not who you expect it to be. In an Emerson poll, Democrat Eric Swalwell has a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Steve Hilton, but "Not Sure" leads the pack with 25 percent.

And since December, undecided has been the leading response by far.

Of course, the overcrowded Democratic field only helps the Republicans. Democratic leadership tried to get some California Democrats to drop out of the race, but they all apparently refused to do so.

This means the state could, in theory, elect a Republican governor for the first time in two decades. And other polls showed Hilton leading the field, including over Swalwell.

California is a hot mess. Not only is it the next epicenter of massive Medicare fraud, Chevron is also warning Newsom's energy policies could lead to the collapse of the world's fourth-largest economy (something Newsom likes to boast about), and Newsom's wife is in the spotlight for taking millions from her "gender stereotypes" charity.

Better than any of the Democrats, frankly.

Some voters never learn.

There's also a risk that there will be no Republicans on the ballot if Hilton isn't in the top two, and that may be why other Democrats are refusing to drop out at this point.

And even some Democrats aren't keen on Swalwell.

The Hill even noted Swalwell's lead, although that term is misleading.

And questions remain about whether or not Swalwell is even eligible to run, as he's listed D.C. as his primary residence.

There's a lawsuit challenging his eligibility.

Voters in California have a clear choice: they can continue the failed policies of Democrats like Gavin Newsom, or they can elect a Republican who can hopefully turn their state around.