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Here’s How Many Voters Were Surprised by Trump’s Win

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  November 11, 2024 6:15 PM

Almost a week ago, President-elect Donald Trump emerged victorious in the 2024 presidential election. The election looked to be close and competitive, at least according to the polls, which meant it was always possible, likely even, for Trump to beat Vice President Kamala Harris. Once Trump captured wins in key swing states such as North Carolina and Georgia early on Tuesday night, it became increasingly likely that he had this race in the bag. That being said, there were still voters surprised that Trump won, and it's almost shocking just how many actually were.

Immediately following the election, The Economist/YouGov conducted a poll of registered voters. One question asked voters if they were surprised about Trump's win, with 52 percent saying they were "not very surprised" (27 percent) or "not at all surprised" (25 percent). Just 22 percent of registered voters were "very surprised."

However, a plurality of Harris voters, 38 percent, said they were "very surprised," and 66 percent were overall "very surprised" or "somewhat surprised" (28 percent). In sharp contrast, a plurality of Trump voters, 39 percent, said they were "not at all surprised" that he won.

This finding received considerable attention on X.

The poll similarly asked respondents prior to the election who they thought would win. By 42-38 percent, voters thought Trump would beat Harris, while another 20 percent weren't sure. Seventy-one percent of Harris voters expected her to win, though, compared to the 74 percent of Trump voters who thought he would win. 

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Another YouGov poll, from just before the election, similarly found that 40-36 percent of adults thought Trump would win.

Another question asked whether the candidates received fewer or more votes than they expected or about as much as they expected. Fifty-eight percent of overall respondents said Harris "won fewer [votes] than I expected," including a whopping 82 percent of Harris voters. A plurality of Trump supporters, 38 percent, said so as well.

A write-up from YouGov America also highlighted these findings:

  • 58% say Harris got fewer votes than they expected while 14% say she got about as many as they expected
  • Harris voters were particularly surprised by the results: 82% say she received fewer votes than expected and 79% say Trump did better than expected

CNN's Harry Enten previewed a Trump and Harris win in the days leading up to the election. That Trump won should surprise nobody. Enten even prepared viewers to keep in mind that Trump could be the first Republican president to win the popular vote since 2004, which he indeed did. 

That so many Harris supporters were surprised by the results just goes to show the delusional state of mind that they were in leading up to and even after the election.

Of course, Harris herself didn't help the situation. In a way that was quite reminiscent of Hillary Clinton's loss in 2016, Harris did not appear to give an update to supporters on Tuesday night but rather sent out a male staffer to do so, in this case, Cedric Richmond, the Harris-Walz campaign co-chair. Harris didn't even address her tearful supporters until late on Wednesday afternoon and was criticized by many for the way she handled her loss, especially in the black community.

What is not surprising is that 77 percent of Trump voters said the election results made them feel "enthusiastic," while 66 percent of Harris voters said they were "upset."

Another YouGov poll, also conducted on November 6, this one of U.S. adults, found that 25 percent were "thrilled," though 20 percent were "devastated." Those most likely to say they were "devastated" included the 42 percent of Democrats, and, oddly enough, the 37 percent of women over 65 years old, who aren't even women of reproductive age that the Democrats cater to with their pro-abortion message.

When it comes to further commentary about Democrats reacting to this election, 58 percent of U.S. adults in one YouGov poll said they consider this election to be "more divisive" than past ones. Democrats, at 64 percent, were more likely to say so than the 55 percent of Independents and Republicans.

This election was certainly divisive, and it's curious Democrats are the ones more likely to say so, given that their nominee kept ranting and raving about how her opponent was "a fascist" and she and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), doubled down on referring to Trump supporters as Nazis.

The Economist/YouGov poll included other interesting findings from there, which certainly say a lot about Harris voters. While 69 percent were "extremely enthusiastic" (42 percent) or "very enthusiastic" (27 percent), 76 percent of Trump voters were "extremely enthusiastic" (55 percent) or "very enthusiastic" (21 percent). Those who voted for Harris were less likely than overall respondents to say they were "extremely enthusiastic" (46 percent), while far more Trump voters were.

Trump's voters were also far more likely to say that their vote was for him than it was against Harris (84-15 percent) than Harris' voters who said their vote was more so for her than it was against Trump (60-40 percent).

The poll also found that while Trump and Harris had similar favorable ratings, Trump's was better, with a 49-50 percent favorable/unfavorable rating. Harris' numbers, were meanwhile at 47-51 percent. Further, Harris was likely dragged down by President Joe Biden's 42-57 percent favorable/unfavorable numbers, as well as his 41-57 percent approval/disapproval ratings. Harris did not have the easiest time distancing herself from Biden and the Biden-Harris administration, and given that she's the sitting vice president, she shouldn't get to do so. 

Another YouGov poll of adults brought even more depressing news for the sitting president whose fellow Democrats forced him out of the race in July. 

In a poll conducted on Friday, 32 percent of all voters believe that Biden will go down in history as a "poor" president, with another 15 percent saying "below average." Just 8 percent believe he'll go down as "outstanding," which isn't far off from the 7 percent who said they didn't know. Even a plurality of Biden's own fellow Democrats, 32 percent, say he'll go down as just "average." Just 19 percent think he'll go down as "outstanding." 

In analyzing how a Harris win would not be surprising, Enten argued that Harris' favorable ratings were better. As we mentioned when covering that, though, there have been polls showing Trump with better favorable ratings. 

Do Harris voters trust this election? Well, 16 percent believe there was "enough [fraud] to influence the outcome" of the election, compared to 9 percent of overall voters. Twenty-two percent of Harris voters say she should not concede, and 16 percent even say "the election was rigged." Further, while a small majority of Harris voters (53 percent) say they will accept Trump as a legitimate president, 28 percent still say they will not. 

The poll also looked at the issues important to voters. While 72 percent of voters considered Harris' pet issue of abortion to be important, that pales in comparison to 10 of the 15 total issues asked. It was tied for fifth amongst most important issues among all voters, and tied for a very distant second among those who voted for Harris. 

Among all voters, "inflation/prices" was the most important issue, with 21 percent saying so, while 7 percent said abortion. Among those who voted for Harris, 33 percent said "Democracy" was their most important issue, while 10 percent each said abortion and "jobs and the economy" were.

The poll also showed that 82 percent of Harris voters and 78 percent of Trump voters believe the election will have "a lot of impact" on the country, though those numbers drop considerably when voters are asked about the impact on them personally. Just 36 percent of Harris voters say the election will have "a lot of impact" on them, with those voters being more likely to say it will have "some impact" (40 percent). Forty-five percent of Trump voters say it will have "a lot of impact."

The poll was conducted November 6-7 with 1,590 registered voters.