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You Bet Pennsylvania Polls Are in the News

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 31, 2024 12:00 PM

We're just days away from Election Day, with the momentum looking to be on former and potentially future President Donald Trump's side, especially as Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign flounders while President Joe Biden refers to Trump supporters as "garbage," though Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), aren't exactly helping the ticket. Even if the race doesn't turn out to be as close as the polls say – and it still could be, or go in the other direction – one of the key swing states to watch is still Pennsylvania, especially with its convoluted early voting system and the concerns involved. 

As Mia covered earlier, there have been concerns regarding Pennsylvania voters, including in red counties, not receiving their mail-in ballots. There were also incidents in Bucks County, a swing county, where potential voters were told to get out of line early, with a Trump supporter even getting arrested for encouraging people not to do so. Fortunately, the Republican National Committee (RNC) and Trump-Vance campaign filed a lawsuit and achieved a critical victory with mail-in early voting being permitted until Friday, November 1. 

The problems continue in other ways, though. As Matt covered, a local ABC News station in Scranton aired results showing that Harris won Pennsylvania by five points over Trump, 52-47 percent. They said they were testing, but it's still sloppy and incompetent, and it's also how conspiracy theories get started.

Per a NewsNation headline on Tuesday, "Democrats dominate early voter turnout" in the commonwealth. That said, this is only in reference to party registration, not who these voters actually cast their ballot for. Fortunately, there's still time. What do the polls say? That same piece referenced how Trump is slightly ahead, and more have since been released. "Final Pennsylvania Polls Look Grim For Kamala Harris," read a Newsweek headline Thursday morning. 

Of seven recent polls among likely voters, Harris and Trump are tied in three – 49 percent per CBS News, 48 percent per CNN, and 46 percent per a Susquehanna poll. 

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CNN may be particularly noteworthy and interesting because it shows Harris leading in Wisconsin and Michigan, by a rather large margin of 51-45 percent in Wisconsin and 48-43 percent in Michigan.

Trump leads by 50-49 percent in a Fox News poll, 49-47 percent in a Quinnipiac University poll, 50-47 percent according to Atlas Intel, and 48-47 percent per an Insider Advantage poll. 

With all these polls included, RealClearPolling has Trump leading Harris in the Keystone State by +0.8. He's also up by +1 in the top battleground states overall, even with the CNN polls hurting him enough in Wisconsin and Michigan, where she leads by +0.2 and by +0.5, respectively. 

Nate Silver's forecast for Wednesday referenced how Pennsylvania is indeed a "tied race," per the results from Fox News and CNN. Silver has Trump up by +0.6 in Pennsylvania, with a trend of R+0.6 over the last week and R+1.7 over the last month. 

The Quinnipiac poll may be particularly notable here, and bring good news for Trump, especially considering what it was showing previously.

In a poll from last month of likely voters in a two-way race, Harris led by 51-46 over Trump. Earlier this month, she led by 49-47 percent. Now, three weeks later, those numbers have flipped, so that Trump is leading by 49-47 percent.

The poll's write-up highlights how this is the first time Trump leads. "In the final days leading up to the 2024 presidential election in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, former President Donald Trump for the first time is on the upside of a race with Vice President Kamala Harris that is too close to call," the poll notes.

Trump still maintains a lead over Harris in a full field, by 47-46 percent, while Jill Stein is at 2 percent and Chase Oliver is at 1 percent.

The poll's headline also notes that "Trump Gets Boost From Men," which is key as Democrats continue to flounder with this demographic even as they desperately try to appeal to them in ways that look to be laughably backfiring, and there's a note about the gender gap further down in the poll write-up as well:

In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, Harris received 49 percent support, Trump received 46 percent support, and Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent support in a race that was too close to call.

...

"The gender gap widens with Trump increasing his lead among men, as what remains a very tight race heads into the final stretch," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

The poll shows that while Trump and Harris were at a 49 percent unfavorable opinion, Trump's favorable rating was slightly better, at 46 percent compared to Harris' 44 percent. 

Of the five issues voters were asked about regarding which candidate they think would do a better job handling, Trump leads on three of them. He also leads when it comes to who voters think would do a better job handling a crisis:

  • Preserving democracy in the United States: 49 percent say Harris, while 47 percent say Trump;
  • The conflict in the Middle East: 52 percent say Trump, while 42 percent say Harris;
  • The economy: 53 percent say Trump, while 43 percent say Harris;
  • Immigration: 54 percent say Trump, while 42 percent say Harris;
  • Abortion: 53 percent say Harris, while 38 percent say Trump.

When it comes to who they think would do a better job handling a crisis that put the country at great risk, 50 percent say Trump, while 45 percent say Harris.

Note that not only does Trump lead by +12 on immigration (54-42 percent), but Harris just barely leads on "preserving democracy in the United States," supposedly one of her biggest issues, by just +2 (49-47 percent).

The poll was conducted October 24-28 with 2,186 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. 

Pennsylvania plays a role potentially when it comes to Harris' choice of running mate as well. Again, Walz has been in the news for doubling down on referring to Trump supporters as Nazis for daring to attend Sunday's rally at Madison Square Garden (MSG), because the Nazis held a rally on February 10, 1939, and in a location that wasn't even the same MSG. While Harris couldn't be bothered to give a genuine denouncement of Biden's remarks referring to Trump supporters as "garbage," Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro did so that night when asked about it during his CNN appearance on Tuesday.

Had Shapiro been on the ticket, Pennsylvania would almost certainly not be this close, especially as he's considered a popular and moderate (enough) governor. There were reports that he didn't want to leave the governorship to be number two, but there's naturally been chatter that he was skipped over because he's Jewish, and selecting him would alienate the antisemitic, anti-Israel part of the Democratic base. 

That has to be even more maddening for Harris, given that there's been discussion about how this race could come down to Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes, the most out of the swing states.