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This Latest Poll Out of Montana Means Senate Race Is Still One to Watch

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  August 11, 2024 4:15 PM

Montana could be one of the top states to watch for November. When it comes to the top of the ticket, former and potentially future President Donald Trump will almost certain win the state, just as he did in 2020 and 2016, by over 16 points and over 20 points, respectively. It will certainly be interesting to watch, though, as to if Trump's coattails extend to Tim Sheehy, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate looking to oust Jon Tester, a vulnerable Democratic incumbent who has been wary to appear too close to Vice President Kamala Harris, and for good reason. 

Last Thursday, Emerson College released their latest polling on Montana, and Trump is ahead of Harris comfortably by 55-40 percent with 5 percent undecided. 

Although the lead is within the margin of error, Sheehy is actually ahead of Tester as well, 48-46 percent. There's 5 percent undecided in that race. Nevertheless, it's still an improvement, given that Tester was leading Sheehy in the March and October polls. 

Trump does even better when undecided are asked which candidate they lean towards, as he enjoys 58 percent support to Harris' 43 percent. With third-party candidates on the ballot, Trump has 54 percent to Harris' 39 percent, while 5 percent support Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and 3 percent are undecided.

Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, is quoted as speaking to how the race has changed since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 via a letter shared to his X account. He endorsed Harris to replace him in a post not long after. 

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"Since the March 2024 Emerson poll in Montana, Trump’s support has decreased a point, while Harris improved five points on Biden’s 35%," he said. "Harris has picked up ground among women voters — 47% support Harris compared to 40% who supported Biden, while Trump maintains around 61% support among male voters. Voters with college degrees have also flipped; in March, they broke for Trump by seven points, now breaking for Harris by seven."

Even with Harris picking up support to the point where some voters have flipped, this doesn't mean it's time to panic, especially with the lead Trump still has. Voters are likely excited to see Harris as a supposedly new and fresh face, especially since she's not Biden. She may even have been in the honeymoon phase when the poll was conducted.

Harris' favorable ratings are underwater in Montana, with 42 percent saying they view her favorably, while 58 percent say they have an unfavorable view. Trump, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by 55 percent of Montana voters, while 45 percent have an unfavorable view.

Kimball is also quoted as chiming in on the Tester-Sheehy race, especially how Sheehy has improved over time. "The share of undecided voters has decreased from 14% to 5% as November draws closer, and Sheehy has benefited with a six-point increase in support, while Tester’s support has only increased by two points," he said.

While Tester has a 12-point lead with women (53-41 percent), Sheehy has a 16-point lead with men (56-40 percent).

The poll was conducted August 5-6 with likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

With there being a little less than three months away, such poll findings sound about right. The Senate race between Tester and Sheehy is a true "Toss-Up" race, and whichever party wins this could end up controlling the entire chamber. Decision Desk HQ and The Hill even regard it as a "Lean Republican" race now.

Tester won in 2018 with 50.3 percent of the vote to Republican Matt Rosendale's 46.8 percent. Rosendale was considered a particularly weak candidate, and alarm bells went off when the now congressman signaled he was thinking about getting into the primary race against Sheehy and briefly did, though he dropped out just six days later. 

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chairman for this cycle, Sen. Steve Daines, is also from Montana and has supported Sheehy from the start. 

Both Daines and Sheehy spoke at the RNC in Milwaukee last month, with both tying vulnerable Democratic incumbents, including Tester, to the failed policies of the Biden-Harris administration. 

Tester looks to be trying to distance himself from Harris, per a headline from The Hill on Friday about how "Tester keeps Harris at arm’s length amid tight Senate race."

As that report mentioned:

Tester praised Vice President Harris when she became President Biden’s running mate back in 2020, but he has kept her 2024 presidential bid at arm’s length. Last week, he reportedly abstained when Montana’s Democratic delegates joined a virtual roll call to vote for Harris to become the party’s official nominee. He’s also expected to skip the Democratic National Convention this month, even as party energy builds behind Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D).

...

A forecast from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) looks grim for Tester, giving Sheehy a 77 percent chance of winning the race. DDHQ’s map labels the Montana contest as “lean Republican” while the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates it a “toss up.”

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Tester was the second Senate Democrat to call for Biden to withdraw from the 2024 race. And when Montana delegates cast ballots to help Harris secure the Democratic nomination on a virtual roll call vote, NBC Montana and Montana Public Radio reported that Tester was the only one of the state’s delegates to withhold support. 

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Senate Republicans have already been hammering Tester for encouraging Harris to run for the Senate in 2015, when he was chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Sheehy has also re-upped Tester’s 2020 social media endorsement when Harris became Biden’s vice president pick, calling his rival “two-faced.” 

National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Jason Thielman contended in a recent column that Tester “has been doing everything he can to avoid telling Montanans where he stands on the upcoming presidential election.”

...

“For years, Tester has been telling Montana that he’s a moderate while he votes with [President] Biden, [Vice President] Harris and [Sens.] Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren,” Trump told a large crowd of supporters in Bozeman, Mont.

He called Tester a “radical left lunatic” while slamming his record on issues like the U.S. southern border and Keystone XL Pipeline. Sheehy and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the chairman of the Senate GOP campaign arm, were also in attendance.

“The nation is watching Montana. They are counting on us 88 days away in this most consequential election,” Daines told attendees. “If we are going to take this country back, we must elect President Trump, and we must elect Tim Sheehy to support President Trump back in Washington.”

The NRSC has been hitting Tester hard about where he stands on Harris, including over X.

 Trump, Sheehy, and Daines also railed against Tester as well as Biden and Harris when he spoke at his Bozeman rally last Friday.