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Ted Cruz Has a New Prediction on the Chances Biden Is Replaced After The Debate

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  June 29, 2024 11:15 AM

While President Joe Biden makes excuses for his debate performance on Thursday night and insists he's remaining in the race, there's been other ideas going around. There's a narrative that Biden will be replaced, with a theory that it will be former First Lady Michelle Obama. It's one Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Ben Ferguson have been talking about on "The Verdict." The likelihood of that scenario has only increased, especially since that debate.

Last September, Cruz gave it a 25-30 percent chance that Biden will not be the nominee. In February, after Special Counsel Robert Hur indicated he would not charge Biden since he was deemed too old, Cruz increased the odds to 50 percent. Now, he believes there's an 80 percent chance.

Cruz and Ferguson recorded their podcast minutes after the debate ended, with Ferguson emphasizing he "didn't think it could actually be this bad," adding, "it was worse than even either of us could have imagined, and now the Democratic Party is screaming 'replace the president!'"

The senator offered "I have to say we have just witnessed what I believe is the most consequential presidential debate in U.S. history," reminding "sometimes debates change things, sometimes they don't." In this case, Cruz believe's the debate "changed things fundamentally."

"I believe the odds have now skyrocketed, I believe the odds are north of 80 percent that the Democrat Party will remove Joe Biden from the ticket and replace him," Cruz explained. "And I believe they are likely to replace Joe Biden with Michelle Obama because Biden did so disastrously badly tonight, that Democrats across the country are in utter freefall and complete panic."

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The episode played clips of commentary immediately following the debate. 

"But I can tell you it started minutes in, [the panic] started with the first couple of answers," CNN's John King said, "and it continued throughout the night from an 'Oh, my God, Oh, my God, Oh, my God,' to 'what do we do about this?' And it involves very senior people in the Democratic Party, including elected officials saying 'we have a problem.'"

Cruz agreed with King that "Joe Biden did unbelievably badly, that the degree of dementia he is facing right now, it has escalated to a point that it is unrecognizable," adding "I think there are a great many Democrats who are looking at this saying 'we cannot nominate this man, he is not capable, he doesn't know what's going on.'" 

Cruz also reminded how Biden actually performed below expectations. "I will say as badly as I thought Joe Biden was going to do, he did worse. It was stunning. I've never seen a debate performance this bad."

The senator, who ran against Trump in 2016 and debated him, disagreed with the King's criticisizing the former president. "I think Donald Trump had hands down his best debate performance he has ever had in his life," Cruz offered.

Noting how Trump did what he needed to do, Cruz explained he needed to "be calm, be measured, be under control, not interrupt Joe Biden, let him hang himself, give him the airtime to talk," which he did "spectacularly." Trump was also "restrained, even as Biden was saying ridiculous things. He was restrained, he was calm, he was matter of fact; he prosecuted the case. And Biden couldn't handle it. Biden repeatedly was screaming, 'you're a liar, you're lying!'"

Later, Cruz pointed out that in contrast, "when Trump poked Biden, Biden freaked out, he couldn't not take the bait."

The episode also played a clip of Biden sputtering and tripping over his words only to claim "we finally beat Medicare" in response to an unrelated question.

Trump responded with "well, he's right, he did beat Medicare, he beat it to death and he's destroying Medicare," especially as illegal immigrants are coming over and receiving such benefits. 

As Cruz pointed out later, this is where Trump did well, especially since "it would be easy to be snarky," though in addition to his quip, Trump got to bring in his pet issue of illegal immigration. 

"And that was a major message that Trump is hitting, is that the invasion at our southern border is also bankrupting Medicare and Social Security," Cruz offered. "I think that was a smart decision to lean in on that. Joe Biden had no answer, he had no response. All night long as Trump laid out the case 'you caused the inflation,' Joe Biden had no response to that. As Trump laid out the people who are being murdered all across this country from criminals and insane asylums."

CNN's Abby Phillip, although she too attacked Trump, spoke to how "the panic that I am hearing from Democrats is not like anything I have heard in this campaign so far." 

While she criticized Trump's supposed falsehoods, Phillip added that "the problem for Biden" amounted to how "Biden's answers, were, in a lot of cases, not coherent," calling that "deeply problematic."

Even Van Jones was in tears emphasizing how "painful" it was to watch the debate where Biden "did not do well at all."

Ferguson quipped "it's like a funeral, i's like you're watching a funeral in real time on CNN," stressing that "this was their instant reaction, this was the first voices that America heard after the debate."

When it comes to the calls highlighting the "scramble" to replace Biden, Ferguson reminded how he and Cruz not only had this conversation in September, but that "there were a lot in the media, and there were a lot of other people in Washington, that said you and I were crazy for having this conversation."

As we covered at the time about that episode:

Cruz thus predicts that "the Democrat kingmakers jettison Joe Biden, and parachute in Michelle Obama." While Cruz and Ferguson paused and reflected and smiled about it, the senator emphasized "I view this as a very serious danger."

Picking Obama not only avoids "infuriat[ing]" black women, but "you avoid the problem you pick from any of the four the other three [of Democratic contenders] are pissed, because they're all to some extent, peers, their rivals, they're all jabbing knives at each other," Cruz pointed out, who "can all fight it out next time."

Michelle Obama herself has some sort of charm as the former first lady, as sort of an idea of "the Obamas saving the day." As Cruz added, "in terms of a solution that unifies Democrats, there ain't nothing like that."

While Cruz opined that Michelle Obama is likely not so eager to actually be president, and he doesn't know if she would do it, he was more certain in his view that former President Barack Obama is running the show. "I do think Barack Obama is already running the Biden administration. I think he is already the puppet master behind this Biden White House, I don't think Joe Biden is the decision maker," he offered.

That narrative about the media turning on Biden that is mentioned so much throughout this episode is also at play here as well. "And so when I see the media turning on Joe Biden right now, I think the odds of Michelle Obama parachuting in in August of 2024, have risen dramatically. And that ought to scare the hell out of anyone who who is unhappy about the direction this country is going and doesn't want us to go even crazier, in an even worse direction," Cruz declared.

Cruz may have been considered "bat crap crazy" at the time of his prediction, but the narrative is back in the news as Democrats talk about replacing Biden. He reminded just as he's done before that "it has to be Michelle" because of the issue Vice President Kamala Harris poses. 

"If you push Joe Biden aside, Kamala is next in line. The people who say 'we want Gavin Newsom,' you know what, if the Democrat Party pushes an African-American woman aside and replaces her with a white guy, their party implodes, they cannot do it," Cruz explained.

He also reminded how Harris came to be Biden's running mate in the first place. "It's actually what forced Joe Biden to pick Kamala in the first place," the senator said. "He backed himself into it. He doesn't like Kamala and the problem Democrats are having that now as they're looking at Joe Biden, they're saying, 'oh, my goodness, this guy cannot be our nominee,' and they look at Kamala and they recognize she's a terrible nominee! And if she's the nominee, they know they'll lose. And so their problem is the only person on planet earth who can push Kamala Harris aside, is Michelle Obama, another African-American woman, who stands on a different footing as a former first lady."

A poll from The Economist/YouGov America released on the Wednesday before the debate shows terrible numbers for Harris.

Cruz also acknowledged there's "impediments that stop it."

"The impediments are twofold. Number one Michelle says no, number two Joe Biden says no," he explained. "On the Michelle says no, I think you're gonna have Barack coming to her, I think you're gonna have a lot of Democrat kingmakers coming to her and the pitch is gonna be 'Michelle, you need to save America. Michelle, we need you. Michelle, if you do not step forward, Donald Trump is going to be president. Michelle, you are the only person on planet earth that can save the world from a Donald Trump presidency.'"

"And listen, people perceive Michelle Obama as somewhat nonpartisan because she was she was a first lady and first ladies kind of stay out of politics. I think she is more radical than Barack is I think she is an ideologue. I think she is a leftist," Cruz warned. "But a lot of people don't know that. And so the pitch to her is going to be 'save America.'"

Biden has to "agree to step aside," Cruz reminded. "Everybody" who is considered a Democratic leader has to tell Biden to step aside, except for Harris, who "is not allowed in the room." They have to "appeal to [Biden's] vanity," Cruz pointed out, "to make the argument to Biden that he would "risk undoing [his] entire legacy" by staying in the race and if he did so, "it would be [his] fault that Donald Trump is president."

While he predicted back in September that the change would come in August, the senator now believes that it may be July. "I may have been a month off in the timing, because this debate I think changed the fundamental terrain," Cruz offered. He explained to Ferguson that we'll know within 21 days, rather than at the convention, especially as Democrats "feel a panic right now."

Michelle Obama has been in the news in other ways this week. As Matt covered, she won't even campaign for Biden. 

Biden appears to be sticking with it, while the Democrats speaking publicly look to be standing by him as the nominee, for now. Ferguson did mention that the media, congressmen, and staffers have been lying about Biden supposedly being fine. 

For those having admit they were wrong, though, Ferguson doesn't believe they'll be held accountable. He also raised the question that if Biden is too incapacitated to run for a second term, when does the issue of the 25th Amendment come in, something Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) has raised.