President Joe Biden looks to be in trouble on many fronts as he runs for reelection in what looks to be a close and competitive election against former and potentially future President Donald Trump. He's unpopular, isn't regarded well on key issues, and has increasingly come off as more senile. One such problem for Biden comes from concerns from his fellow Democrats over his strategy, an Axios piece from Wednesday morning highlighted.
"Top Dems: Biden has losing strategy," declared the headline, as the piece mentioned that Team Biden "relies on voter concerns about Jan. 6, political violence, democracy and Donald Trump's character."
A Dem strategist in touch with the campaign told Axios: "It is unclear to many of us watching from the outside whether the president and his core team realize how dire the situation is right now, and whether they even have a plan to fix it. That is scary."
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) June 19, 2024
The man behind that approach is longtime Biden aide Mike Donilon, who has the trust of former White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain. Points about trust in Donilon are reiterated throughout. But, at particular issue in this election is how Biden is losing support from key voting blocs, including his coalition from 2020:
Why it matters: Biden's core inner circle hasn't lost faith in that approach, the product of Biden and his longtime aide, Mike Donilon.
- But that puts them on an island within much of the party about what will decide the election, as polls consistently have shown Biden tied or behind even after a slight bump following Trump's criminal conviction.
- Several polls have indicated voters are deeply concerned about democracy but they are most worried about inflation and the economy. They've also shown Biden's support slipping among key Democratic voting groups: Blacks, Latinos, young adults and union members, but the Democracy message is resonating with older voters.
- Biden's former chief of staff Ron Klain, who has known Donilon for decades, told Axios his view is: "In Mike I trust."
Polls repeatedly show that voters overall care about issues like inflation, the economy, and immigration, areas where Biden receives particularly low marks. They also trust Trump on such issues. Democrats, however, still insist on going for the supposed "threats for democracy" issue, as a Cygnal poll from last week revealed.
Not only are the American people who will decide the election not likely to be too keen on such a focus, but the same also goes for Biden's fellow Democrats, even his aides. There looks to be infighting about such a strategy as well. As Axios also mentioned:
What they're saying: A Democratic strategist in touch with the campaign told Axios: "It is unclear to many of us watching from the outside whether the president and his core team realize how dire the situation is right now, and whether they even have a plan to fix it. That is scary."
- People close to the president told Axios they worry about raising concerns in meetings because Biden's group of longtime loyal aides can exile dissenters.
- "Even for those close to the center, there is a hesitance to raise skepticism or doubt about the current path, for fear of being viewed as disloyal," a person in Biden's orbit told Axios, speaking on condition of anonymity because of those dynamics.
- "There is not a discussion that a change of course is needed."
...
Zoom out: Many Democrats think the president and his closest aides learned the wrong lessons from Democratic wins in 2020 and 2022, and it's causing them to misread 2024.
- Biden's core team, including Donilon, believes Biden won in 2020 because his "soul of the nation" message resonated and he presented a clear "moral contrast" to Trump.
- In 2020, Donilon wanted to focus on Trump's character over the economy, even though "our own pollsters told us that talking about 'the soul of the nation' was nutty," he told the New Yorker.
Biden's closest aides also argue that framing Republicans as "ultra MAGA" — along with Biden's speeches about democracy, which were mocked by some Democrats at the time — helped prevent a predicted "red wave" in 2022.
- Biden and his close team have defied their doubters in the 2020 primary, the 2020 general election and the 2022 primaries. That's led them to be defiant toward those voices this time.
But many Democrats — including some in the administration — say the Biden team's view of itself is distorted:
- Biden won the 2020 Democratic primary largely because the party consolidated to stop Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and picked the candidate who polls showed as the most competitive.
- Even with a once-in-a-century pandemic, Biden barely beat Trump by less than 45,000 votes across three states. "Biden didn't win, Trump lost," one Democrat close to the White House put it.
Whether Democrats are in disarray over such a strategy isn't the only takeaway, though. Another concerning aspect of the article hones in on the narrative about Team Biden's view of the American people and how they'll vote come the November election.
The Biden team--whether in the White House or the reelection campaign--doesn't seem to be too willing to trust the American people to see with their own eyes how there are concerns about Biden's age, specifically his mental and cognitive decline.
It's why the White House has been working overtime to brush off concerns about Biden's age and claim that those examples of video evidence highlighting concerns about his mental and cognitive abilities are "cheap fakes." White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday especially lamented how Republicans were focusing on such concerning moments, rather than Biden's supposed "legislative wins." As Guy highlighted earlier on Wednesday, there have already been plenty of examples of the mainstream media stepping in to assist the White House with such a framing.
Bringing it back to the Biden campaign's specific talking points, the narrative around January 6 is particularly prevalent here when it comes to Donilon:
Driving the news: Donilon, Biden's top political aide, privately has reassured people that voters will "do the right thing" in November by embracing democracy and rejecting Trump, according to a Biden aide who has heard Donilon say it.
- "Joe Biden is a great president, and great presidents get re-elected," is another common Donilon refrain.
- Donilon — one of the most experienced and understated Democratic operatives in the country — has worked with Biden since 1981. He has argued that polls aren't fully reflecting voters' concerns about democracy.
- In response to questions for this story, Biden advisers told Axios: "These people have clearly not heard from Mike or anyone on the team the president's detailed case for re-election."
Donilon articulated a nuanced version of this to The New Yorker's Evan Osnos earlier this year, saying that Jan. 6 would affect the 2024 election much like 9/11 was central to the 2004 election.
- "The Democratic Party didn't want to believe it was a 9/11 election," Donilon told Osnos. "…I decided, after the election, I would never be part of a presidential campaign that didn't figure out — with clarity — what it wanted to say and stick to it."
By Election Day this year, Donilon believes "the focus will become overwhelming on democracy. I think the biggest images in people's minds are going to be of January 6th."
- The Biden advisers told Axios: "This is Joe Biden's strategy — and Mike Donilon and his top advisers are in agreement with the president. The polling shows that democracy ended up a top issue of concern for voters in 2022, and it will be in 2024."
Donilon claims Biden will get reelected because he "is a great president," but in what world is that seen to be the case? Polls like Gallup continue to show he's one of the least popular presidents during his third year, and RealClearPolling has him with just a 39.9 percent approval rating while 538 has him with a 38.4 percent approval rating.
Even if Biden demonizing his political opponents with his infamous speech on the "Battle for the Soul of the Nation," prevented a red wave in 2022, it's still likely quite a stretch to claim those associated with January 6 are going to really be "the biggest images in people's minds" for Election Day.