On Tuesday night, Sam Brown emerged victorious as the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate race out of Nevada. He now faces vulnerable Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen in November, who also won her primary on Tuesday night.
Although Brown was running in a particularly crowded field of 12 candidates, plus the option to pick "none of these candidates," his race was called around the same time as Rosen's race was called. Decision Desk HQ declared Brown and Rosen the nominees both just after 11pm, about an hour after polls closed.
Decision Desk HQ projects Sam Brown wins the Republican primary for US Senate in Nevada.#DecisionMade: 11:05pm ET
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) June 12, 2024
Follow live results here: https://t.co/MdrnvSlwIb pic.twitter.com/ikYlwgtg2Q
Brown had received former and potentially future President Donald Trump's endorsement just days before, in a Sunday post from TruthSocial.
In such a post, Trump emphasized Brown's military career, describinghim as "a FEARLESS AMERICAN PATRIOT, a Purple Heart Recipient" and one "who has proven he has the 'PURE GRIT' and COURAGE to take on our Enemies, both Foreign and Domestic." He also emphasized how Brown will "STRONGLY SUPPORT OUR GREAT MILITARY/VETS."
Sam Brown is a FEARLESS AMERICAN PATRIOT, a Purple Heart Recipient, who has proven he has the “PURE GRIT” and COURAGE to take on our Enemies, both Foreign and Domestic. Sam is now running for U.S. Senate in the Great State of Nevada, primarily because he knows that Crooked Joe… pic.twitter.com/a2Y6m4lca4
— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) June 10, 2024
This isn't Brown's first attempt to become the nominee. He also ran in 2022, but lost to Adam Laxalt, who it looked like had a real chance to defeat Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV). Even with that seat being considered a "Toss-Up," Cortez Masto still emerged victorious and was declared the winner days after the election. It was a particularly close race, 48.93-47.94 percent. With such a loss, Republicans missed their chance at taking back control of the U.S. Senate for that cycle.
However, 2024 looks much better for Republicans, especially in comparison to 2022.
When it comes to which party controls the Senate, that could very well come down to one of the "Toss-Up" races, with Nevada being among them. In April, Cook Political Report moved their forecast of the race into that category, and their write-up at the time mentioned expectations that Brown would receive the Trump endorsement and become the nominee.
In noting that the race still has a rating, Cook Political Report posted on Tuesday night that there was "No surprise here" with regards to Brown's win.
No surprise here: Army veteran Sam Brown wins the Republican primary for #NVSen. He’ll take on freshman Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in a key race that we rate Toss Up.
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) June 12, 2024
Nevada once again looks to matter significantly, though not merely when it comes to the U.S. Senate race. While Democratic Reps. Dina Titus and Steven Horsford are in "Likely Democratic seats," per Cook Political Report, Democratic Rep. Susie Lee is in a bit more competitive race, since it's "Lean Democratic." Even more telling is that Trump, although he lost the state in 2020 to President Joe Biden and in 2016 to Hillary Clinton, is ahead in the polls. In fact, it's one of Trump's best battleground states, as he has a lead of +5.3 over Biden, per RealClearPolling.
While Laxalt didn't manage to unseat Cortez Masto, vulnerable Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak was unseated by current Republican Gov. Joe Lombardi during the 2022 cycle.
Nevada certainly looks to be a state to watch for November, at just about every level. With an estimated 94 percent of the vote reporting, Brown is considerably ahead, with 59.6 percent of the vote. Far behind in second place is Jeffrey Gunter, with 15.2 percent of the vote.