As Guy covered earlier on Monday, the results of The New York Times/Siena College poll are out, and with former and potentially future President Donald Trump's lead narrowing against President Joe Biden, it proves we are in for what looks to be one heck of a close election in November. Each candidate has their strengths going into this election to be sure, and there's one in particular for Trump that not only highlights his own strengths, but Biden's serious weaknesses.
Even with Trump's edge narrowing to 46-45 percent among registered voters, with 8 percent saying they don't know who they'd vote for, the contrast between how voters regard Trump's presidency versus Biden's thus far is stark.
As Axios highlights, a plurality, 46 percent, regard Biden's presidency as "mostly bad for America," while 27 percent say it's been "not really good or bad," and just 25 percent say "mostly good." Meanwhile, 42 say Trump's presidency was "mostly good for America," while 33 percent say it was "mostly bad" and 23 percent say it was "not really good or bad."
Axios's write-up highlights in particular:
Why it matters: Voters have taken up an especially sunny view of Trump's time in office on the economy — a pivotal issue for November's election.
Other issues where Trump's ratings improved include maintaining law & order, and his handling of the pandemic.
- The poll found a big increase (9 points) in registered voters who believe he left the country better off.
The partisan breakdown is something to behold. Those who voted for Trump in 2020 (88 percent) who say they'll vote for him in 2024 (83 percent) and Republicans (83 percent) are much more likely to say Trump's presidency was "mostly good" than those who voted for Biden in 2020 (64 percent), those who say they'll vote for Biden in 2024 (67 percent), and Democrats (64 percent) are to say Trump's presidency was "mostly bad."
A plurality of Independents, 43 percent, say Trump's presidency was "mostly good." While a plurality of those who didn't vote in 2020 (41 percent) and those who plan to vote "other" in 2024 (45 percent) say Trump's presidency was "not really good or bad," both groups are still more likely to say his presidency was "mostly good," at 36 percent and 23 percent respectively, than they are to say it was "mostly bad," at 21 percent and 20 percent, respectively.
While a majority of those who voted for Biden in 2020 (51 percent), those who say they'll vote for him in 2024 (52 percent), and Democrats (53 percent) say Biden's presidency has been "mostly good," it's only a majority by the thinnest of numbers. Trump voters and Republicans are much more likely to say Biden's presidency has been "mostly bad," as 88 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2020 say so, as do 83 percent who say they'll vote for him in 2024, and 84 percent of Republicans do.
Fifty percent of Independents say Biden's presidency has been "mostly bad." Close to a majority of those who did not vote in 2020 and who plan to vote "other" in 2024 also say so, at 48 percent and 49 percent, respectively. They're much less likely to say Biden's presidency was "mostly good" for America. Just 10 percent of those who did not vote in 2020, 6 percent who plan to vote "other" in 2024, and 21 percent of Independents say it was.
NEW: Voters' views of Trump's presidency improve https://t.co/Cq5pwE6UMR
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) April 15, 2024
Given how prone to lying and misleading the Biden HQ account has been when it comes to taking Trump's remarks out of context, especially on abortion, immigration, and definitions of "bloodbath," it's not surprising that they ran with poking fun of Trump regarding a narrative on whether or not people felt better off four years ago.
Sure enough, the poll's latest findings have poked holes in the Biden HQ counter narrative.
So, why has Trump's lead narrowed? As Guy pointed to, citing a write-up from The New York Times, "Mr. Biden's tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters..." Keep in mind, Biden still has a little over six months to win these voters over.
The write-up also points to displeasure about the candidates from various voters, including Independent ones:
“Just blah,” said Beth Prevost, a 59-year-old hairdresser and independent voter in Windsor Locks, Conn., summing up the feelings of so many about the rematch. She said she was leaning toward Mr. Biden as “the lesser of the two evils.”
“You can recover from bad policies, but you can’t recover from a bad heart,” Ms. Prevost said. “And Donald Trump has a bad heart.”
Regardless of the merits of her point, and if America really can recover from another Biden term, this woman gets one vote just like the rest of us. Trump may have some winning over to do. Though, because he too has a little over six months, it's worth being optimistic and saying he can win over voters just like Biden can.
It's also worth highlighting how The New York Times write-up is bad news for Biden in that the small edge he has over Trump isn't better:
Mr. Biden has made Mr. Trump’s potential to undermine democratic rule after the riot of Jan. 6, 2021, a centerpiece of his re-election campaign. But so far, equal 31 percent segments of respondents said that Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were “good for democracy.” The number who said Mr. Trump was “bad for democracy,” 45 percent, only slightly outpaced those who said the same of Mr. Biden.
Also in the poll, nearly equal shares of voters labeled Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden a “risky choice” for the country.
Biden and his reelection campaign have been trying to hammer voters with warnings that Trump is a supposed threat to democracy, especially in the context of January 6 and using remarks that Trump clearly made in jest to claim he'll be "a dictator for a day." There's also a larger theme of not just taking remarks out of context to highlight how Trump is supposedly a threat, but using debunked talking points as well.
Not only do 31 percent of registered voters say Trump and Biden are "good for democracy," a plurality says Biden is also "bad for democracy," 38 percent, though the plurality of those who say Trump is sits at 45 percent if slightly higher. Nevertheless, that that number isn't higher is bad news for this key Biden narrative.
The poll was conducted April 7-11 with 1,059 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.