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How's It Going for One of the Top Senate Races of 2024?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  March 08, 2024 1:30 PM

After the incredibly divisive Thursday night's State of the Union address that President Joe Biden gave, the 2024 general election has gotten even more intense. One could say the same after Biden's speech ahead of January 6 and his ranting and raving about abortion when commemorating what would have been the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade, but this time former and potentially future President Donald Trump is even closer to becoming the Republican nominee once more now. Beyond the presidential race, though, there are also several top Senate races to watch as Republicans have a real shot at reclaiming the chamber.

There looks to be at least three "Toss-Up" seats for the Senate: Ohio, Montana, and Arizona. Vulnerable Democratic incumbents are running for reelection in the first two--Sherrod Brown and Jon Tester, respectively--while Democratic turned Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is retiring in Arizona. 

Decision Desk HQ considers there to be five such "Toss-Up" seats, and they currently predict that the Republicans will be in the majority with 50 seats to the Democrats' 45 seats. In addition to the three above, they also include Michigan, where Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and Nevada, where Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is running for reelection. 

When it comes to Montana, it's definitely one to watch no matter what, given what a red state it is, though Tester has held on. Trump won the state in 2016 by 20.5 points and in 2020 by 16.4 points. Republican Sen. Steve Daines also won reelection in 2020 by 10 points. Tester still won reelection in 2018 by 3.5 points, though, in part because his Republican opponent, Rep. Matt Rosendale was and still is considered weak on fundraising and with other issues. 

Rosendale actually had a very brief campaign in the Republican primary to challenge Tester once more, though he both announced and suspended it last month. After some speculation as to whether he would run for reelection for his House seat, Rosendale announced last week that he would, only to then on Friday announce he actually wasn't. He had been facing a crowded primary for that race he currently holds, and mentioned "a death threat" as well as "false and defamatory rumors."

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Daines, who is also the chairman of the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC), has endorsed Tim Sheehy, the CEO of Bridger Aerospace and a former Navy SEAL. Trump endorsed him last month as well.

Emerson College recently released a poll about the Montana Senate race when it comes to a Tester-Sheehy matchup. While Tester still leads, the race is much more competitive, especially as Tester's lead is within the margin of error. 

Tester now leads with 44 percent to Sheey's 42 percent, while 14 percent are undecided. In October, Tester had 39 percent to Sheehy's 35 percent support, while 21 percent were undecided. 

As many others pointed out when sharing the poll via the Interactive Polls account, this is especially noteworthy given that Sheehy's name ID isn't all that high yet.

There's definitely the opportunity for Sheehy to grow and improve. He has the time and resources to do so, especially as he has the backing from and coattails of Trump to ride. Trump also leads Biden in the poll by 56-35 percent, with just 9 percent undecided.

And, as others have also pointed out, the crosstabs show that when it comes to the 14 percent of undecided voters in the Senate race, 61 percent of them say they support Trump. 

This most recent poll from Emerson College was conducted February 26-March 2, with 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. 

Thursday's State of the Union speech is relevant in this race because Tester responded over X from his official account. He talked about how his guest was a veteran who was exposed to toxins during his service in Vietnam and has received benefits from the PACT Act.

He also referenced the content of Biden's speech. When describing "pressing issues for Montanans," Tester listed off issues such as "honoring our commitment to our nation's veterans, lowering the cost of housing and groceries, securing our southern border, and stopping the deadly flow of fentanyl to keep our communities safe, and staying ahead of the threat of China."

"While President Biden addressed some of these issues tonight, I have made it clear that I will stand up to his administration when he fails to get the job done for our state," Tester shared, adding "I'll continue to work with anyone, Republican or Democrat to ensure we remain the greatest state in the greatest country of the world."

Tester may be aware that he's running for reelection as a Democrat in a red state, but he's still a Democrat. Further, if Tester wanted to be really bold, he'd perhaps call out Biden for his overall nasty rhetoric and his attacks on Trump and Republicans, as well as his obsession with pet issues for liberals like Ukraine, January 6, and abortion. 

It's worth noting the Emerson College poll has Biden with just a 28 percent job approval.

In another VIP piece from last August, we highlighted Tester's thoughts that Biden is "absolutely 100 percent with it," as he also claimed "I think folks are making a bigger deal out of it than it is" when it comes to concerns with the 81-year-old president's mental capability and health as it applies to him serving another term. 

Since then, though Biden's only gotten older as he appears to be less with it. Multiple polls also show that the American people are quite concerned about the president's fitness.