Incumbents running for reelection tend to have an advantage, even in such red states. Thus, it's not surprising that Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio would have a lead over his opponents. But, a recently released poll from Emerson College showed that Brown's lead is shrinking.
Currently, Brown leads state Sen. Matt Dolan 39 percent to 38 percent, Secretary of State Frank LaRose 39 to 37 percent, and businessman Bernie Moreno 39 to 37 percent. Moreno, in particular, has seen an improvement in the polls, while Brown's support slipped when matched against him.
November's Emerson/Nexstar Media poll showed Brown leading with 42 percent to Moreno's 32 percent.
The poll also showed that Moreno improving his numbers when it comes to the Republican primary. He and LaRose are statistically tied at 22 and 21 percent, respectively. Dolan has 15 percent support. Forty-two percent, however, are still undecided.
"Since last month, Moreno’s support has increased 12 percentage points from 10% to 22%, LaRose’s support increased three points from 18% to 21%, and Dolan’s support has stayed at 15%," the poll's write-up noted, highlighting the change.
This poll comes as former and potentially future President Donald Trump endorsed Moreno last December after he had already been speaking positively about the candidate for months.
Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball is quoted in the write-up as addressing the endorsement:
“Moreno had the most substantial movement from the November poll following former President Trump’s December endorsement,” Kimball noted. “A quarter (25%) of Trump general election voters support Moreno in the U.S. Senate primary. Twenty percent would support LaRose, and 12% would support Dolan. Forty-two percent are still undecided ahead of the primary.”
“Moreno appears to be the preferred choice to challenge Brown among older voters – just over a quarter (26%) of voters ages 50 or older support Moreno, compared to 19% who support LaRose, and 16% who support Dolan,” Kimball said. “Conversely, LaRose performs better among younger Republican voters, earning 26% support from GOP voters under 30.”
Trump is also leading President Joe Biden by 11 points, with 47 percent support to Biden's 36 percent, according to the poll. Trump beat Biden in 2020 by 8 points, just as he beat Hillary Clinton in 2016. While Brown has outperformed before, as he did in 2018 to win reelection, Trump being on the ballot, assuming he is the nominee, could hurt the Democrat.
The poll was conducted January 23-25, with 1,844 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
Just before the 2022 midterm elections, Emerson College Polling showed now Sen. JD Vance, the Republican nominee, with 53 percent support to then-Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan's 44 percent, when undecided voters were accounted for. Over half, at 56 percent, expected Vance to win. Vance ended up beating Ryan with 53.28 percent of the vote to Ryan's 46.72 percent.
The poll was released around the same time as quarter fundraising numbers were released. Coverage from Spectrum News 1 highlighted the numbers and statements from the three campaigns that all saw a win:
Republican State Sen. Matt Dolan is leading the way with $4.8 million, businessman Bernie Moreno with just over $2 million and Secretary of State Frank LaRose trailing behind with about $700,000.
...
“Frank LaRose out raised his opponents and is clearly the man to beat this race,” said Ben Kindel, a Campaign Spokesman for LaRose. “He’s the only proven conservative and the only one who has actually won statewide elections. And, in November, he’ll be the one to finally retire Sherrod Brown.”
“Bernie’s recent surge in the polls, along with his continued strong fundraising figures make it clear: he is the candidate to beat,” said Reagan McCarthy, a spokeswoman for the Moreno campaign. “Our campaign is coalescing support from hardworking Ohioans across the state who know that Bernie is the candidate who can unite the party and defeat Sherrod Brown in November.”
“As Bernie Moreno and Frank LaRose continue to fall behind in raising money, it’s clear that Matt Dolan is now the candidate best positioned with the resources, message, and record for conservative results to win this primary and defeat Sherrod Brown in November,” said Kathi Paroska, Dolan’s campaign manager.
Forecasters currently consider the race to be a "Toss-Up." With West Virginia's Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin announcing last November that he was retiring, this Ohio Senate race and Montana's, also regarded as a "Toss-Up," look to be the ones to watch in a year that could prove to be particularly favorable for Republicans. The Montana Senate race has made headlines for a potentially messy primary, especially if Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale once more runs against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.