Republicans received hopeful news on Thursday, when Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not be running for reelection. The vulnerable incumbent running again would have been the only hope for Democrats to hold onto the seat. Even still, the race had been considered to slightly favor Republicans, and is expected to even more so now. The leftist outlet Vox took notice, with "Joe Manchin retires, making Democrats’ brutal 2024 Senate map even more brutal." The article was also featured in the Friday edition of RealClearPolitics (RCP).
Speaking to how West Virginia is a particularly Republican state, where former and potentially future President Donald Trump won handily in 2016 and 2020, the Vox article mentions that "It is hard to believe any other potential Democratic nominee would be able to match Manchin’s political strength there."
Manchin's seat isn't the only one, though, as the piece also mentions. There's also Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH), and then there's still even more:
Besides Manchin, two other Democratic senators represent states Donald Trump won in 2020, and they’re also up for reelection in 2024. Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) are both running again, but these are all very red states, and winning them in a presidential year will be quite difficult for Democrats.
But the vulnerabilities go deeper. The only remotely close states (per presidential results) where Republicans are defending seats are Florida and Texas — two states where Democrats have had few victories in recent years. Meanwhile, Democrats are also defending seats in five states Joe Biden very narrowly won in 2020. These seats are currently held by Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), Bob Casey Jr. (D-PA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).
While one shouldn't take anything for granted in 2024, especially when it comes to how last November's midterm races turned out, next year does like hopeful for Republicans in the Senate. This is especially compared to what the Senate map looked like last year.
But again, this is Vox here pointing to how it doesn't look good for Tester and Brown:
Manchin’s seat is likely lost due to his retirement. But the best hope for Tester and Brown is for Republicans to have a messy and divisive primary, after which a controversial nominee emerges. Even then, though, it would be tough to defy the presidential lean of their states, which have both backed Trump pretty solidly in the past two cycles.
So that’s three seats where, per underlying partisanship alone, Democrats will have a hard go of it.
In Montana, Tim Sheehy is the candidate backed by fellow Montanan and National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chairman Steve Daines. He may be running against Rep. Matt Rosendale, who faced and lost to Tester in 2018 may also be running. There's been some controversy, though, given that Rosendale revealed he "prayed" for a House Republican smaller majority.
With Ohio, there's a three-way primary race with state Sen. Matt Dolan, businessman Bernie Moreno, and Secretary of State Frank LaRose running.
Not only do Republicans have good pick up opportunities, Democrats do not. "Moving on to the GOP-held seats up for election — barring some sort of GOP candidate catastrophe in a deep red state, Democrats have only two plausible targets: Florida and Texas," the piece pointed out.
While the piece raises concerns for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), given that he only narrowly won his race in 2018 against former Rep. Beto O'Rourke. It's woth pointing out, though, that that was considered a blue wave year.
Of course, who is on the presidential ticket could also matter a great deal, the piece mentions. Buckle up, 2024 is going to be a wild ride.
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