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How Close Was New Hampshire?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  January 24, 2024 4:15 PM

Tuesday night, former and potentially future President Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Republican primary, with his victory coming a little more than a week after he won the Iowa Republican Caucus. He's almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee once more. Enough people are acting like it, including President Joe Biden. Although he had to do so through a write-in campaign, and he too was facing primary challengers, Biden won the New Hampshire Democratic primary after coming in fifth place back in 2020.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race on Sunday and endorsed Trump, but the polls that were released still showed Trump winning, with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley coming in second, as was indeed the case. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) declared Trump the winner early at 8 pm EST. With an estimated 96 percent reporting, DDHQ has Trump winning with 54.5 percent to Haley's 43.4 percent.

RealClearPolling showed Trump with a lead of +19.3 over Haley, though it's worth noting that DeSantis' 8 percent was included there. Even still, a majority of those who selected DeSantis as their first choice had Trump as their second choice when it comes to a CNN poll released just before the governor dropped out, as Leah highlighted on Monday.

It looks like Trump will have beaten Haley by 11 points, which is not as much as RealClear pointed to, but it's also not as close a race as Haley likely hoped for. The Washington Examiner's Byron York highlighted as much on Wednesday morning with the headline, "Haley surprises the pollsters, still loses to Trump."

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As York pointed to, Frank Luntz boldly predicted that his "numbers have [Trump] beating Nikki Haley by about 4-8 points."

It wasn't quite that close, though, and Luntz acknowledged earlier on Wednesday that Haley still lost by the margins that she did. He also shared on Tuesday that if she were to lose the primary "by 10+ points, it'll be very hard for her to justify staying in the race."

Nevertheless, Haley has remained. Just like she did during her remarks when she came in third place in the Iowa Republican Caucus, the former governor went for a hopeful and even celebratory tone from New Hampshire.

Her campaign also highlighted how Haley defied expectations with a press release from Thursday – "Haley Defies Pollsters, Pundits, Predictions."

Included in the release were headlines regarding The Boston Globe/NBC-10/Suffolk University poll that showed Trump with a 19-point lead of 57.4 percent to Haley's 38.2 percent. The tracking poll at one point showed Trump up by +22, with 59.6 percent support to Haley's 37.8 percent. A Monmouth University/Washington Post poll had Trump up 18 points with 52 percent to Haley's 34 percent.

"The narrow result speaks volumes about Trump's weakness going forward and Haley's surprising strength," the press release noted, which also contained a statement from the campaign. "The political elites never learn. The same naysayers who said Nikki Haley couldn't defeat a 30-year incumbent state legislator or win the governor's race in South Carolina are the same people declaring the presidential race over after only two states have voted," Haley Communications Director Nachama Soloveichik was quoted as saying. "Nikki Haley has never taken her cues from the establishment, and she's not going to start now. Keep underestimating us — that will be fun."

Even if Trump didn't win in such a large fashion as some polls predicted, there was plenty for him to celebrate. And he did indeed celebrate on Tuesday night how he won the New Hampshire primary three times in a row, while also going after Haley, as Matt pointed out when covering Trump's victory speech.

Further, the Make America Great Again, Inc. PAC released several press releases, including one highlighting the historic nature of his win. "President Trump Received The Most Votes In New Hampshire Primary History," one from Wednesday morning noted, highlighting how Trump broke Sen. Bernie Sanders' (I-VT) record of 152,000 votes when he ran as a Democrat in the 2016 presidential primary. As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump has over 175,000 votes. 

Another release highlighted coverage from the New York Post, which noted, "New Hampshire primary exit polls show voters strongly backing Trump on immigration, economy."

And still another press release went after Haley, highlighting commentary from FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich, who noted, "If Haley couldn't win New Hampshire, she probably won't win anywhere."

What's particularly noteworthy about Haley's numbers is that, as Madeline covered, exit polling showed that a majority of Haley's supporters in New Hampshire weren't even Republicans. Seventy percent were registered undeclared. 

The MAGA Inc. PAC picked up on those numbers, too. Another Wednesday morning press release highlighted, "You can't win the Republican nomination without Republican voters." This was the case not only in New Hampshire but in Iowa as well.

In Iowa, RealClearPolling had Trump winning by +33.7, and he ended up winning by +29.8.

Haley looks to be staying in for South Carolina, with the Republican primary there taking place on February 24, though the Nevada primary comes before that on February 6. There will actually be a caucus on February 8, where the delegates will be awarded. In addressing "Why Nevada doesn't matter," POLITICO pointed out that "Haley and Trump aren't even competing against each other there: She's running in the primary, while he's competing in the caucus." 

In one of his many posts going after Haley on TruthSocial, Trump vowed to win in her home state.

Regarding another note about New Hampshire, in this case on the Democratic side, Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota didn't manage to pull off a win, but he did earn 19.7 percent of the vote.

Phillips posted about his experiences at a Trump rally in New Hampshire as a way to find common ground with MAGA voters rather than demonize them, as plenty of other Democrats have done. 

Still, another press release from MAGA Inc. on Wednesday morning highlighted Phillips' take from when he went on CNN and declared, "My party is completely delusional right now."