On Thursday night, news came out that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) was reportedly going to announce he was running to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), again, for a rematch from 2018. As the Washington Examiner reported:
According to a source with direct knowledge and four sources familiar with the matter, Rosendale has told colleagues he plans to launch his campaign shortly before the March 11 candidate filing deadline. One of the sources said that they believe Rosendale could launch as soon as the last two weeks of February. This would change the outlook on the race as Senate Republicans already have their preferred candidate, Tim Sheehy, and view Rosendale as a liability, as he has already lost to Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) once before.
A campaign staffer for the congressman told Townhall that "Rep. Rosendale has not made a decision yet. He is focused on serving the people of Montana and spent the week fighting to fund government in a transparent and responsible manner."
But there's been chatter, and concerns, about a Rosendale candidacy for months now.
A Republican strategist who works on Senate races shared with Townhall a list of those concerns, noting "Republicans are right to be skeptical of Matt Rosendale for a number of reasons." That includes involvement from Democrats, such as those with connections to Democrats.
"First, [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer’s cronies are spending millions of dollars supporting Rosendale over Tim Sheehy. That’s because they know if Rosendale wins the primary Tester will beat him like a drum, just like he did in 2018," the strategist said, who had more to say about that loss. "Second, Rosendale has done nothing to correct the issues that lost him the race in 2018. He is still a horrible fundraiser and still has a thick Maryland accent that offends Montana voters."
The Last Best Place PAC, which registered with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) last September, has ties to national Democrats and has been going after Tim Sheehy. It's been referenced in reports from POLITICO and CNN, as well as a separate report from the Washington Examiner.
Democrats tried the same tactic with the 2022 elections. As Townhall covered at the time, Democrats looked to prop up candidates like Don Bolduc to face Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH), and John Gibbs to face now Rep. Hillary Scholten (D) in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District. Gibbs beat now former Rep. Peter Meijer, a Republican who voted in favor of articles of impeachment against Donald Trump, in the August 2022 primary. Both Bolduc and Gibbs lost their races in the general election.
The strategist also referenced Schumer in raising concerns about what interest there is in a Rosendale run. "It’s not clear who wants Matt Rosendale to run for Senate other than Matt Rosendale, Chuck Schumer, and Jon Tester," the strategist added.
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) took note of those remarks, referencing Maryland and his 2018 loss to Tester in a fiery post from his X account. Rep. Ryan Zinke, another Montana Republican, replied with a photo of Rosendale turning down a call from Trump last January about selecting McCarthy as speaker at the start of the 118th Congress. It took 15 rounds for McCarthy to finally earn the gavel, in the early morning hours of January 7. Rosendale ultimately voted "present."
The strategist mentioned such incidents as well when claiming that "all Rosendale does is alienate Republicans."
— Ryan Zinke (@RyanZinke) October 4, 2023
Trump's name and what possible role he may have in making an endorsement was referenced at length by a report from CNN last December. There certainly are questions as to whether Trump will get involved in the primary, especially given that Rosendale ultimately endorsed him for president in December. Sheehy had done so in April.
When it comes to turning down that phone call from Trump, Rosendale told Montana Talks not long after that he didn't take the call because it was a "fineable offense."
"Quite frankly, utilizing- speaking on the phone on the floor, or using a camera on the floor is a fineable offense. You are not supposed to be speaking on a telephone on the floor," Rosendale shared. "It is a fineable offense, and I was steadfast in my representation of Montana, and felt it was completely out of line for someone to call the president without my consent, and to try to insert me into a conversation while I was involved in a historic, rapidly changing vote. That was out of line."
As the Washington Examiner mentioned, the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) is already backing Tim Sheehy for the race, who entered last June. A political outsider, Sheehy is the CEO of Bridger Aerospace and a former Navy SEAL.
The NRSC chairman, Sen. Steve Daines, is also from Montana. Comments he's made in the past about Rosendale have ranged from his quip back in October that "I didn’t realize that Matt Rosendale and [former Speaker] Nancy Pelosi are in the same prayer group," to telling CNN that "I like Matt Rosendale. I hope he stays in the House and builds seniority."
He was referring to this story https://t.co/XW5bU1fOLh
— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) October 3, 2023
Back in 2018, Rosendale lost to Tester by 3.5 points. Trump won the state in 2016 by 20.5 points and in 2020 by 16.4 points. Daines also won reelection in 2020 by 10 points.
Forecasters currently consider the race to be a "Toss-Up." The 2024 Senate map is looking particularly favorable to Republicans when it comes to retirements and vulnerable Democrats running for reelection, especially in comparison to 2022. With West Virginia's Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin retiring, Montana is regarded as one of the top pickup opportunities for Republicans, as is Ohio with Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown running for reelection. The Ohio race is also considered to be a "Toss-Up."