We now know that Republicans will hold their Iowa Caucus on January 15, 2024. The Democrats, still in disarray over their primary system, are expected to hold theirs sometime in March. Though it's still the start of the primary process for the Republican Party, it's very much a state to watch, including and especially when it comes to how former and potentially future President Donald Trump is shaking things up there.
Trump is clearly the frontrunner. RealClearPolitics (RCP) shows him with a spread of +33.5 in the primary. An Iowa poll from American Greatness from earlier this month showed Trump with a lead of +23. From what few polls there are, Trump has an overall lead of +24.
That it's such a commanding lead is an important one, since Trump may not have done himself any favors in Iowa recently.
Last Friday, six of the Republican presidential candidates sat down for a conversation with Tucker Carlson at the FAMiLY Leadership Summit that took place in Iowa. Trump was not one of them, as he had a speech at the Turning Point Action conference in Florida taking place the next day. Many of the candidates didn't fare well against Carlson, as Matt pointed out, though he later wrote in a separate piece that what Carlson provided was necessary.
It wasn't just Trump's absence that ruffled some feathers. In "Trump's absence in Iowa may not matter for 2024 election," Axios referenced the Summit's CEO Bob Vander Plaats, who's considered a "kingmaker."
Vander Plaats has made clear he thought it was a "mistake" for Trump to skip out.
Top Evangelical Leader tells me it’s a “mistake” for Donald Trump not to attend tomorrow’s big evangelical event in Iowa and says evangelicals will notice. “They don’t like being taken for granted… I think Iowa is tailor made for him to get beat here.” Watch my interview with… pic.twitter.com/6wGq2Dx2Rq
— David Brody (@DBrodyReports) July 13, 2023
It was a MISTAKE for Donald Trump to bypsss today’s HUGE Evangelical event in Iowa. He could have been on stage with Tucker Carlson receiving big applause. Instead, @RonDeSantis and @VivekGRamaswamy got the positive headlines. Trump did tons for evangelicals but they still want…
— David Brody (@DBrodyReports) July 15, 2023
He was also the subject of a piece in The Wall Street Journal from last Friday when the summit took place. "A Top Man of God in Iowa Wants Someone Other Than Trump," the headline read, with the subheadline noting, "Bob Vander Plaats has a record of backing winners in state's Republican caucuses."
"Vander Plaats, who is contemplating an endorsement of someone other than Trump around Thanksgiving, has a record of picking winners—in Iowa, at least," the piece read. "He backed Ted Cruz in 2016, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008, all of whom won the caucuses before failing to secure the GOP nomination."
Trump also lost some friends when he went after Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA), who has been floated as a potential running mate for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) should he win the nomination. DeSantis is currently in a distant second place behind Trump and revealed on Saturday that he'd "of course" consider her.
Given that Iowa is the first state in the process, it's a given for presidential candidates to flock there and cozy up to state and federal officeholders. Trump didn't like the idea of Reynolds wanting to remain "'NEUTRAL,'" especially after he took credit for her winning her 2018 election after having been elevated to the governorship after Trump named then-Gov. Terry Branstad as U.S. ambassador to China.
Following Trump's criticisms of the governor, Iowa State Sen. Jeff Reichman announced he was switching his endorsement from Trump to Reynolds.
Reynolds, to her credit, has indicated she'd still "absolutely" be willing to appear with Trump. As the Des Moines Register reported, she shared that she's invited Trump to a Fair-Side Chat at the Iowa State Fair next month.
"He's been invited, so hopefully he'll take that opportunity to show up," Reynolds said. "I think it's a great way for Iowans to see kind of a different side of our candidates. Who wouldn't want to come to the Iowa State Fair?"
The summit isn't the only event Trump skipped out on. He skipped out on a Fox News debate in January 2016, opting to host an event for veterans instead. Not long after, he said he had no regrets, and why would he? He went on to win the nomination and the presidency.
Trump has also been toying with the idea of not participating in the first RNC debate also hosted by Fox News, in part because he doesn't feel the need to given how far ahead he is in the polls.
At the end of the day, it's worth asking how much Iowa really matters. Trump didn't win the state in 2016, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas did, with a spread of +3.3. This is even after RCP had Trump with a spread of +4.7. He came in second but received the same number of delegates as Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida did. Trump still went on to win 41 contests.
Although it took some time for the votes to come in, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania was ultimately declared the winner for 2012. It wasn't he who won the nomination, but Mitt Romney, who came in second place in the caucus. RCP had had him up with a spread of +1.3, though Santorum had won with a spread of +0.1.
As we are now almost six months away from the caucus, it's still possible for the polls to change, if they're even fully accurate, to begin with.
The excitement over Iowa is that it's the first in the process. It also contains a more evangelical, socially conservative base. Iowa was even once thought of as a swing state. Love or hate him, Trump is behaving quite characteristically in this race, and voters will accept or reject him when they vote.
The Democratic Iowa Caucus is another story. At this time, that caucus will take place at a yet-to-be-determined date. In the name of diversity, the DNC has looked to upend the system by making South Carolina the first in the nation. It's worth noting that President Joe Biden won South Carolina, seen as a much-needed boost after disappointing finishes in other earlier primary contests, with the help from Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), a close ally of his who is a big name in the state.
While President Barack Obama won the Iowa Caucus in 2008, Hillary Clinton barely won in 2016 against Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, with considerable shenanigans taking place. Sanders just barely lost again in 2020 against then-Mayor Pete Buttigieg of Indiana. Then DNC Chairman Tom Perez was criticized heavily for the delays in results, questioned the accuracy, and for his refusal to take responsibility, including from fellow Democrats. Although Perez refused to step down, he did not run again in 2021, and Jaime Harrison, who ran a failed Senate campaign against Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, now holds the role.
Despite being an incumbent president, Biden may very well lose Iowa and New Hampshire, as Spencer highlighted last month. As Axios had reported, it is "increasingly likely" that these states will still hold the first contests. Biden won't appear on the ballot, then, if keeping to the DNC-sanctioned calendar.
Democrats are facing disarray not only in Iowa but in New Hampshire, the first primary state in the contests.