The November midterms are now just a little over seven months away, and the forecast is continuing to look good for Republicans. Last December, the Cook Political Report predicted that the Republican Party would gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, where they only need to pick up five seats. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) shared last week that he's mighty confident about it. Earlier this week, at a press conference endorsing her E-PAC candidates, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), who chairs the House Republican Conference, shared that she believes there will be over 50 Republican women in the House. But it's not just Republicans who are predicting a red wave.
During Wednesday's episode of "The View," hardly a bastion of reality, guest co-host Tara Setmayer predicted that there could be a "bloodbath" if the Democrats don't "turn things around." Setmayer is a former Republican who serves as a senior advisor for The Lincoln Project and co-hosts a live show with the group's co-founder, Rick Wilson.
The panel was discussing an interview Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), a squad member, gave with New York Magazine, during which, as Matt highlighted earlier, AOC acknowledged "we're in trouble," suggesting President Joe Biden adopt more progressive policies.
Setmayer pointed out the obvious, that AOC is herself in a safe district, which is D+25.
"This is the absolute wrong lesson that Democrats have learned from what happened in the last year," Setmayer said about AOC. "The country is not left of center. We are a moderate country. Independents dominate the electorate, and it’s swing districts that make a difference."
The squad member who won the 2018 and 2020 general election races with 78.2 percent and 71.6 percent of the vote, respectively, wasn't the only one to make such a tone-deaf argument.
In an opinion piece that was published in The Hill on Monday, Morris Pearl, of the Patriotic Millionaires, bears the headline that "To prevail in midterms, Democratic donors should help unseat centrists who undermined Biden's agenda."
Democratic strategist James Carville, who called out the "stupid wokeness" of the squad following last November's Virginia election and who was the target of AOC's wrath as a result, highlighted the issue of attacking centrists in an interview with Vox's Sam Illing in January of this year.
As Carville, who has a mouth on him, said:
Look, I’m a liberal Democrat. Always have been. But some of these people bitching about Manchin can’t see political reality straight. Six percent of adults in this country identify as “progressive.” Only 11 or 12 percent of Democrats identify as progressive. So let’s just meet in the middle and say something like 7 or 8 percent of the country agrees with the progressive left. This ain’t a godd*mn debate anymore. Someone like Manchin is closer to the mainstream than a lot of these people think, and pretending like he isn’t won’t help the cause.
And, as we get closer to November, it doesn't look like Democrats are keen on taking the advice offered by the likes of Setmayer, especially as President Joe Biden's poll numbers get worse. According to an NBC News poll that Guy highlighted on Monday, Biden is at his lowest approval rating for that poll, at 40 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.
That poll also shows Republicans with a 46 percent advantage come the midterms, compared to the 44 percent Democrats have. In his write-up for NBC News, Mark Murray noted that this "is the first the Republicans have held on this question since 2014."
Democrats themselves may be admitting they've already lost the midterms, as Congressional Leadership Fund's Dan Conston said when quoted by The New York Times. In his piece published on Monday, Jonathan Weisman highlighted where Democrats are spending for the upcoming elections:
The breadth of the congressional map reveals the scope of Democrats’ worries about holding seats in midterm elections. Areas once considered safe, like South Texas, greater Pittsburgh and Seattle will see Democratic advertising.
But Democrats will be playing some offense, too, especially in California, where redistricting has opened up Republican targets.
“We are doing whatever it takes to hold the majority, and there are opportunities across the map,” said Abby Curran Horrell, the executive director of the House Democrats’ political action committee, known as House Majority PAC, adding, “We feel confident about the races that we plan to play in.”
Her Republican counterpart, Dan Conston of the Congressional Leadership Fund, said the huge expenditure is a sign of weakness and an admission that inflation, rising crime rates and an unpopular Democratic president will not only cost Democrats swing districts but also make some districts President Biden won handily fiercely competitive.
“I think they believe they’ve already lost the majority,” he said. “This is about staving off losses in some deep blue, traditionally Democratic areas.”
Biden and other top Democrats, such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), for instance, continue to hysterically claim they can, and they must, win the midterms.