New York State was subject to Gov. Andrew Cuomo's reign for 10 years until he resigned last August. He was replaced by Gov. Kathy Hochul, his lieutenant governor and a fellow Democrat who has been awful in her own right. Hochul is considered the likely favorite for winning the Democratic nomination for the gubernatorial election this November. However, Rep. Lee Zeldin, who is running for the office as a Republican, is hopeful that he has a shot at beating her, along with his running mate of Alison Esposito for lieutenant governor, and he's pointing to polls to prove it.
As reporting from Carl Campanile highlighted earlier this week for The New York Post, the Zeldin campaign released an internal poll conducted by John McLaughlin & Associates with 800 likely voters surveyed. The poll shows Zeldin with a lead of 45.5 percent to Hochul's 44 percent, while 10.5 percent are undecided.
Zeldin's lead is within the margin of error, and, again, it's an internal poll. There are still hopeful signs, though, beyond the fact that a Republican candidate in New York State has a lead to begin with.
According to Campanile:
The general election outcome depends on turnout — and where it comes from in the state. Democrats outnumber Republicans better than 2 to 1 in New York with a growing number of registered independents.
McLaughlin says public polls typically oversample the vote from New York City and under-sample Republicans.
His poll has 34 percent of the statewide vote coming from New York City.
There's also how Biden could drag down a Democratic ticket, even in New York:
But now Joe Biden is president, in charge during the worst inflation in five decades, exploding crime in urban areas while a belligerent Russia invades Ukraine. Biden’s problems could drive up GOP turnout and depress Democratic turnout this fall.
The poll has Biden underwater even in blue New York with only a 43 percent approval rating and 55 percent disapproval. Hochul had a 44 percent approval rating and 48 percent disapproval.
The poll says 51 percent of voters prefer a Republican candidate to serve as a check and balance to the Democrat-controlled Legislature.
It's not just this particular poll where President Joe Biden is faring so poorly, and in New York no less. According to data from Civiqs last updated on March 18, Biden is at a 44 percent approval rating, while 46 percent disapprove. A Siena poll from last month, as I also highlighted in a VIP piece, has Biden's favorability rating at 48-48 percent, while his job performance rating is particularly negative, at 36-63 percent.
??New Poll: Zeldin Takes LEAD Over Hochul!
— Lee Zeldin (@leezeldin) March 14, 2022
Just released poll shows we're LEADING Hochul 45.5% to 44% in the race for Gov!
For the Zeldin-Esposito ticket, losing is not an option. We are going to win this race, because we HAVE to win this race. https://t.co/2b7youLviL
In a pinned tweet for his campaign account, Zeldin touts the poll's finding and Campanile's coverage.
We have the momentum on our side, we have the issues on our side, we have scores of everyday New Yorkers on our side, and Team Zeldin has the numbers to prove it! Come January 2023, New York is going to have a new Governor, and the Cuomo-Hochul show will finally be over. pic.twitter.com/99E4ehfDbv
— Lee Zeldin (@leezeldin) March 16, 2022
The McLaughlin poll also found that crime was a top issue for respondents, with one in five respondents citing it as such. Seventeen percent cited taxes. "Those are good issues for Republicans after Democrats who run state government raised taxes last year and approved the unpopular no-cash bail law," Campile reported.
In his previous conversations with Townhall, Zeldin had also raised those issues. Townhall has also extensively covered how crime as a result of no-cash bail has been a particular problem in New York City, thanks to Alvin Bragg, the progressive District Attorney who has been rather soft-on-crime since taking office in January. That same month, The New York Post reported, a recall effort was launched against him, though Bragg refuses to address it.
Subsequent reporting from Campanile and a campaign email from Zeldin highlighted how he's fared even better in polling when it comes to the primary. Among Republican gubernatorial candidates, which also include Andrew Giuliani and Rob Astorino, Zeldin is at 45 percent to their 14 percent, giving him a 31 percent lead.
Zeldin became the "presumptive nominee" late last June, when he wracked up enough endorsements. As Joshua Solomon covered on March 1 for the Times-Union, Zeldin "easily won the nomination during the state Republican convention on Long Island," which was held February 28-March 1.
As it turns out, though, Cuomo may not be finished after all. As Landon has covered, he's been teasing a comeback, even giving a speech on cancel culture at a church earlier this month. Another report from The New York Post this week, from Thursday, warned that "Cuomo says he’s ‘not going anywhere,’ doesn’t rule out bid to run against Hochul."