Lest there's been any confusion in whom the redistricting efforts are favoring, the Cook Political Report earlier this week declared that Democrats have taken the lead in benefiting. David Wasserman wrote up a report for the site on Friday, following a tweet on Thursday explaining the lead, which is the first time that Democrats have taken such a lead this cycle.
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.* pic.twitter.com/7DsP5LEDD0
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 3, 2022
Wasserman points out that from the new maps, with the process being about two-thirds of the way over, "Democrats are now on track to net two to three seats from new maps alone," which he calls "a significant shift."
Make no mistake, the lead comes from partisan gerrymandering of the most dramatic kind, arguably the most noteworthy example being out of New York. As I covered on Friday, there's already been a lawsuit against the map, with 14 plaintiffs alleging the maps violate the state constitution. Wasserman referred to the map as an example of "acrobatic gerrymanders," along with Illinois' map.
While former President Barack Obama and his attorney general, Eric Holder, who now serves as the chairman of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, have decried partisan gerrymandering, they've stayed silent on New York's map.
Just late last night, Holder tweeted a statement celebrating Friday's ruling from the North Carolina Supreme Court that the new congressional maps had been illegally gerrymandered.
Victory in yet another state: North Carolina. Efforts to weaken the power of the vote for select groups of people are unlawful and must not be tolerated—not on our watch. We must and will act. pic.twitter.com/lq1xL6PbOe
— Eric Holder (@EricHolder) February 5, 2022
Holder's statement in part claimed how "Republican legislators arrogantly decided to pass maps that were heavily manipulated in favor of their party." He also later wrote that "Republicans conducted an anti-democratic process and gerrymanderd, because they thought they could get away with it. In doing so, they underestimated the tenacity of North Carolinians and our preparedness to fight for the right to vote in free and fair elections."
Does this mean that Democrats are expected to maintain control of the House? No. Wasserman noted that Republicans remain favored to take control in the upcoming November midterm elections, a call that Cook Political Report made at the end of last December.
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 3, 2022
In full disclosure, a component of the shift in our scorecard's outlook is methodological. We're comparing the new maps to how districts *could* have broken down in '22 had lines not changed - hence GOP -0.5 each in NV/OR, even though Rs won't lose any seats there.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 3, 2022
Historical trends show that the president's party almost always loses seats in his first midterm election. One way to escape that is with a particularly high approval rating, as was the case for President George W. Bush leading up to the 2002 midterm elections following the country unifying over the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001.
Wasserman referenced Biden's 42 percent approval rating, which is an average, as some polls have shown the president faring even worse, as a prediction that Republicans will still make gains when it comes to the midterms.
Biden and the Democrats cannot cheat historical trend, especially not with such dismal poll numbers, but these gerrymandered maps sure make it look like they're doing their hardest to try.