Unsurprisingly, last week's Democratic debates on CNN (which we analyzed here and here) did virtually nothing to change the trajectory of the 2020 nominating contest -- except, possibly, knocking Kamala Harris down a bit. Former Vice President Joe Biden remains in a strong frontrunner position, both nationally and in the early primary states, nearly equaling the support of his two closest rivals (Sanders and Warren) combined. Via Morning Consult:
Basically the same phenomenon in early primary states, but peep Steyermentum...he's been dropping $$$. pic.twitter.com/8GUIfn8QXm
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 6, 2019
On the Tom Steyer data point, a Republican operative more or less called this, roughly a month ago:
If you don’t think that a person who can afford to put $1m on the air every week in Iowa for the next 7 months would change this race, you’re too on Twitter https://t.co/cPEnsH7PyC
— Logan Dobson (@LoganDobson) July 8, 2019
Dobson also wrote, "you cannot buy the [Democratic] primary, but you can definitely buy yourself into the top five or so," adding, "from there, who knows." Billionaire Tom Steyer has been pouring huge resources into early states, breaking into the (low) top tier in early states. Despite his own wealth-accumulating history, his pet issue has long been the environment; remember, only right-wing money in politics is bad. More recently, however, his central push has been on impeachment. He's spent enormous sums of cash raising his own profile while demanding that President Trump be removed from office, a message that resonates with many Democratic primary voters. A recent Emerson poll showed that impeachment, not the economy or healthcare, was the number one issue for self-identified Democrats.
Despite both Speaker Pelosi's ongoing opposition, and Robert Mueller's somewhat disastrous testimony (during which no new incriminating information was gleaned), the number of Congressional Democrats favoring an impeachment inquiry has risen. More than half of Pelosi's caucus is now on board. If Steyer can effectively buy his way onto the debate stage (and he's trying!), he'll hammer away on this issue relentlessly, and could very well gain substantially in the polls. I'll leave you with an absolutely withering, lengthy essay on Mueller, the Democrats, and the mainstream media -- written by a left-wing journalist. It's brutal from start to finish. Read the whole thing:
A well-deserved further roasting of the mainstream media for bungling the Trump/Russia story — again. The rise and fall of superhero Robert Mueller https://t.co/qNXt2tzpvQ
— Brit Hume (@brithume) August 1, 2019
It seems clear that the debates were not a game-changer. The mass shootings over the weekend, however, may galvanize the race in unexpected ways. On that front, I'd like to see this policy question explored and pressed:
In other words, confiscation. Let’s get all the candidates on the record on this. https://t.co/t5QuKzH6oI
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) August 6, 2019