*THAT* Is Not a Good Sign for Dems Regarding the 2026 Midterms

Matt Vespa | June 17, 2026 6:55 AM

It’s 2022 in reverse, with Democrats believing Trump’s approvals, the affordability issues, and the Iran war will ruin the Republicans. However, there’s a problem. The first is that it’s only June—we have a long way to go until Election Day. Anything can happen. Second, Democrats don’t have a clear agenda besides whining about Trump and supporting obviously terrible candidates, some of whom face domestic abuse allegations and have Nazi tattoos.

Republicans are also building a defense against a so-called blue wave with these redistricting measures. But the recent poll released on Tuesday was a punch to the gut for the Democrats. They're only ahead by two points, which, as of now, indicates that no wave is on the horizon. It’s a very, very bad poll:

That's really, really bad for the Democrats. https://t.co/ok8wmxzqBL
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) June 16, 2026

New - Generic Ballot poll

🔵 Democrats 46% (+2)
🔴 Republicans 44%

February poll - 🔵 Democrats +7

YouGov #A - RV - 6/15
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 16, 2026

Even CNN’s Harry Enten is saying, for now, the Democrats aren't there yet. Given the weak field of candidates and lack of a clear message, this could turn out to be a dud. We’ll see, but Trump needs to deliver something concrete on Iran soon and see gas prices drop, among other things. No lead feels secure at the moment.

The Dems midterm warning sign is pretty clear:

There are high quality polls (Ipsos, MU Law, & NBC), which show Dems shy of their generic ballot benchmark in past wave years.

Their Dems avg. lead is just 3 pts... & Dems need a 3-4 pt win to take the House given redistricting. pic.twitter.com/qPy5CsxFZS
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) June 15, 2026