The Federalist's Co-Founder Explains Why Massie Lost Last Night

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) lost his primary last night. He’s finished, and he’ll probably act poorly until he’s out of office, based on his concession speech. Let him throw a tantrum—he’s done. Many opinions will emerge on why he lost, mainly that opposing President Trump was a fatal mistake. That played some role. Larry even said, and this was true in Indiana too, that it’s not about Trump specifically—it’s about the voters. Massie’s district is strongly pro-Trump, and voters there wanted someone who would actively promote the MAGA agenda. Massie wasn’t doing that: he voted against the Trump tax cuts and border security.

🔴 Trump endorsed Ed Gallrein won 19 of 21 Kentucky counties, leaving anti Trump Rep. Thomas Massie with just 2, including his home county.
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) May 20, 2026

"Running a campaign obsessed with Israel when your district is in Kentucky... was a really stupid idea."@KatiePavlich reacts after Ed Gallrein defeated Rep. Thomas Massie in the most expensive U.S. House primary in American history. pic.twitter.com/OyTaNdtkwC
— Katie Pavlich Tonight (@KatiePavlichNN) May 20, 2026

The Federalist’s Sean Davis had a tweet that perfectly summed up Massie’s loss. Davis added that Massie had fought and beaten Trump’s operatives easily in the past. So, what changed? Well, he changed, and the voters took notice [emphasis mine]:

Why did Massie lose tonight?

Massie went from principled libertarian during COVID, to GOP leadership lapdog under McCarthy, to anti-Trump Epstein obsessive in 2025 after tweeting about that issue a whopping three (3) times in the decade prior. The nail in the coffin for him was…
— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) May 20, 2026

Good and very fair analysis here. https://t.co/vIoDIzAKPF
— Andrew Kolvet (@AndrewKolvet) May 20, 2026

Why did Massie lose tonight?
Massie went from principled libertarian during COVID, to GOP leadership lapdog under McCarthy, to anti-Trump Epstein obsessive in 2025 after tweeting about that issue a whopping three (3) times in the decade prior. The nail in the coffin for him was voting against OBBB in 2025 because, according to Massie, it did too much to secure the border.
Trump mercilessly trashed Massie in 2020–calling him a “disaster” for America and Kentucky and saying he should be thrown out of the GOP entirely—but Massie easily swatted that away and won 81-19, so you can’t say he only lost because of Trump. He went toe-to-toe with Trump on COVID in 2020 and won overwhelmingly.
Massie lost because he went from being perceived as a quirky but lovable nerd who seemed to genuinely believe everything he said, to looking like a clout-chasing influencer who cared more about getting TV time with Democrats on an issue he clearly never cared about until five minutes ago than he did about representing his voters.
We’ll never know what caused the apparent personality change—maybe it was the death of his wife, maybe it was the McCarthy race followed by McCarthy’s ouster, or maybe it was a desire for notoriety or media acclaim and a lucrative podcasting career outside of Congress—but the drastic change was undeniable, as was the seeming lack of interest in much of anything happening in Kentucky.
Blame Trump, blame Israel, blame Epstein, blame the tragic death of a spouse, I don’t care. But you cannot just wave away 2020 Massie going face-to-face with the Trump machine and winning in a rout only to get smoked six years later.
Massie’s voters didn’t really change all that much, but he did, and they noticed.