The Supreme Court might not have officially gutted Section II of the Voting Rights Act, which allowed race-based redistricting. The long-awaited Louisiana vs. Callais case was narrowed in a 6-3 ruling, sending liberals into a tailspin. The dissenting opinion makes it clear that this part of the VRA has been eliminated, opening the door for the entire South to redraw districts. This could lead to GOP dominance in the region for generations. And before people panic, there aren’t any Republicans in New England, so everyone relax.
Democrats can't win a redistricting war, as their strongholds are already heavily gerrymandered. Achieving just a one-seat gain will require significant effort across many blue states. In swing areas like Pennsylvania, multiple challenges exist, notably that one chamber of the state legislature is controlled by Republicans. Axios had a lengthy piece about the Democrats’ grand response plan to the VRA ruling, and well, it read like this task was more trouble than it was worth. Still, some Democrats quoted against redistricting are now open to it following the Callais opinion:
That new energy could put a fresh crop of blue and even purple states on the board as potential redistricting targets ahead of 2028, according to more than 20 federal and state Democratic lawmakers Axios spoke to.
Even some legislators who previously resisted redistricting in their states appear to be warming up to the idea after Wednesday's decision.
Illinois state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who won the Democratic nomination for Illinois' 7th House District, was one of several Black Caucus members who pushed back against Gov. JB Pritzker's attempt to redistrict last fall. He told Axios in a phone interview Thursday, "All things should be considered at this point."
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The details: "Anyone seeking a map, seeking a gerrymander, would have a real problem in our state Constitution," Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) told Axios, citing restrictions on splitting up counties, municipalities and even boroughs.
The state Supreme Court threw out a GOP-drawn map in 2018 under those auspices, and most of those judges are still on the court, Boyle said, "so I'm very skeptical ... a Democratic trifecta could push through a gerrymander."
"We will have a national referendum on the chaos, cruelty and corruption of Donald Trump and his enablers this November," Manuel Bonder, a spokesperson for Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D), told Axios when asked about the possibility of mid-decade redistricting.
"The Governor is focused on winning up and down the ballot and electing leaders who will take action to protect our democracy and pass a new Voting Rights Act and national anti-gerrymandering legislation."
"Who the hell knows?" said Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) when asked whether Michigan Democrats may make an attempt at mid-decade redistricting.
She noted her state has an independent redistricting commission that is "unlikely" to get scrapped.
The intrigue: Amid all of this, House Democrats told Axios they will simultaneously push legislation to eliminate gerrymandering nationwide.
As you can see, it’s a mixed picture: Colorado and New York are fertile ground for this kind of activity, but other states face legislative and constitutional hurdles that dampen enthusiasm. The nationwide ban on gerrymandering isn’t going to happen, so just have a laugh at that. Soon, this won’t be an issue, as blue states are set to lose influence in the 2030 census, which explains the panic. Democrats are expected to suffer a major setback in the Electoral College, where a future Republican might not even need to win the blue wall states to reach 270.
That’s why Democrats rely on unrestricted illegal immigration. It’s been their political lifeline for the past generation and the only thing keeping them relevant.
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