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Tipsheet

One Thing to Keep in Mind About Last Night's Blowout GOP Losses

AP Photo/Steve Helber

Last night was ugly. The major races in Virginia and New Jersey were killing fields for the GOP. But keep in mind one thing: these are blue states, and they acted like it. Republicans got swept in these key races. Republicans in Virginia lost the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general races. New Jersey, where one hoped Republican Jack Ciattarelli could pull off an upset, was dashed by the general political mood and the fact that 250,000 New Jersey residents had fled the state the last time he ran, where he almost uprooted incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.

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In the Old Dominion, the shutdown had an impact, for sure. Federal workers are Democrats, and they were furloughed and angry. Add that Republican Winsome Earle-Sears was not the best candidate, even with Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger being an all-around trainwreck on the stump. Yet, while these races got national attention, especially when Attorney General-elect Jay ‘I want your kids to die’ Jones' insane texts were released in the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk assassination, it was a blue tsunami.  

Democrats in the Virginia House of Delegates pretty much have a supermajority. New Jersey Democrats have one in the state assembly. New Hampshire got bluer. Every Virginia county swung to the Left. California passed Proposition 50, which paves the way for its gerrymandering session. Maine rejected voter ID and passed red flag laws. In Georgia, two public service commissioners got blown out, with Democratic candidates in both races clinching over 60 percent of the vote. Last, in Bucks County, where conservative school board candidates clinched wins by campaigning against woke agenda nonsense, the Democrats retook the ground. They regained the majority in 2023. They finished off all the Republicans in the Central Bucks and Pennridge districts. 

It's not the end, but this was an atrocious night for the Republican Party. Up and down the line, from school board to county commissioner, governor to assemblyman—the GOP got throttled. For sure, this will be used by the media to craft an anti-Trump narrative. Part of this is the tide turning against the GOP ahead of the midterm elections, as it historically does. But this shutdown isn’t going anyone's favor, and Democrats now have less of an interest in ending it.  

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A huge red flag about last night is voter turnout. Now, in some races, that wasn't the case —I get it. But we’ve discussed this when Trump isn’t on the ballot. The endorsement isn’t enough. Republicans and their candidate still need to do stuff, like get out the vote and make their operations more competitive for early voting. The Trump base has a healthy share of voters who are low propensity. We cannot let the ‘gee, it was two blue states’ be the crutch, though it’s a reason for last night’s drubbing. We must think about the post-Trump moment because right now, JD Vance, should he become the heir apparent in 2028, will have a tough time keeping the Trump base together. As Hillary Clinton learned, political coalitions are not transferable.  

Last, Zohran Mamdani might be one of the GOP's political life rafts. He's bound to destroy New York City, making for good fodder for the midterms. Also, Jones' VA AG win means the Democrats have become the party of political violence and assassination. They endorse it wholesale. Act accordingly. 

Take a breath, highlight the areas you must focus on to prevent a 2026 wipeout. Triage this thing, Republicans, because political death is always an election cycle away. These aren’t permanent victories. It sucks we got rolled, but it’s only the first quarter. Lots of game left. Get to work. 

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