CNN’s Harry Enten had a message for Democrats and Kamala Harris supporters: don’t rip open that champagne bottle and pop that cork. It’s too early to declare victory, with the election analyst listing three caution points for liberals about the current state of the race.
The first is the most obvious about Trump: pollsters have consistently underestimated his support among the electorate. It wasn’t a one-off thing: they underestimated his support by 9 points in 2016 and by 5 points in 2020 at this point in both elections among the crucial states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
3 caution points for Democrats...
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024
1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9
The second point is that Donald Trump is the most popular he’s ever been, which even New York Times reporters feel has been glossed over. And while Kamala Harris has appeared to solve the Democrats’ fundraising and voter enthusiasm issues, she hasn’t moved the needle concerning those who for sure will vote in November. That figure has remained unchanged since May, around 62-61 percent. Based on these factors, the point is that Trump is in an excellent position to win this election.
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Point 2 has been overlooked for a year https://t.co/uQpsRi38iS
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) August 13, 2024
It's still a ballgame, folks.
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