All televisions must be turned off at the White House because there’s no way Joe Biden knows he’s making the entire map for Democrats more vulnerable. As for his path to 270, it could become even harder. The man needs to run the table on the blue wall, where Trump is slightly leading in Michigan, polling ahead of Biden in Wisconsin, and looks even better in Pennsylvania. If Trump wins just one of those states, it’s over for Joe. And surprisingly, the Keystone State, which has been a cruel mistress to Republicans, could be the state with the best chance to flip for Trump. The Cook Political Report moves six states toward the GOP, with Pennsylvania being the direst for Democrats—private polling from Democratic and Republican firms shows that post-debate, Trump increased his lead over Biden from four to ten points.
Nationally, yes, the polls suggest a close race, but that’s irrelevant regarding the Electoral College, where a Trump landslide is being projected. Based on what other number crunchers have said, Biden must be polling at least six points ahead of Trump to have a somewhat healthier baseline concerning the Electoral College. He’s nowhere close to that right now. What Hill Democrats have been trying to drill into this defiant and obtuse White House is that Biden is killing the ticket. Down-ballot Democrats are at risk of losing the House and Senate. If Biden stays, Virginia, New York, and New Hampshire could be in play for Trump. CNN’s Harry Enten delivered that gut punch, noting that it’s absolutely possible:
WATCH: CNN data analyst Harry Enten says that blue states like New York, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire could be in play for Trump if Biden remains in the race. pic.twitter.com/8peEyx0WXe
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) July 13, 2024
Politico reported this week that New York Democrats especially are downing gallons of Pepto Bismol seeing the polling, with some already declaring the Empire State has veered into battleground status:
President Joe Biden has a new problem: a competitive race in deep blue New York.
Elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago. They’re so worried they’ve been trying to convince the Biden team to pour resources into New York to shore up his campaign and boost Democrats running in a half-dozen swing districts that could determine control of the House.
[…]
…the warning signs are impossible to ignore and have been building over the past year. Two private polls conducted in a swing New York House district and reviewed by POLITICO — one in September and another in March — found former President Donald Trump leading Biden there by 1 point, a virtual tie. And public polls over the last four months found Biden’s lead had winnowed to just 8 points across New York — an unusually narrow gap in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine said. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
[…]
The closely watched Siena College poll in June found Biden with an 8-point advantage over Trump. The same poll found only 28 percent of voters not enrolled in a major party supported Biden’s reelection, and 71 percent of them disapproved of the job Biden is doing.
[…]
The public survey has matched the polling of labor groups, according to an official with one union who was granted anonymity to discuss the closely held data. The poll by the union in June found a nearly identical result for Biden.
“We were definitely alarmed at how bad he’s doing statewide,” the person said.
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And yet, all this falls on deaf ears, as Biden’s inner circle shields him from bad news, insulating the president in an echo chamber, and threatening any aide who says anything contrary to the narrative about Biden’s health and standing in this election.
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