Like His Amnesty Bill, Is Thom Tillis’ Political Career Dead?

Spencer wrote about this last night: the terrible, horrible, no good, very bad amnesty bill for illegal aliens that Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) spearheaded is dead. It was a political iceberg that even the Titanic could have spotted before impact. Everything about this legislation was wrong. The bill's text, timing, and strategy were woefully out of touch and straight-up nonsensical. What does the Republican Party gain by granting millions of illegal aliens a pathway to citizenship? As discussed ad nauseum, the bill affords two million recipients of the arguably unlawful Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program to get on the citizenship track. Still, once through the process, they can sponsor extended family members.

That was the poison pill, and every conservative knew that from the get-go. That’s the provision that was the legislative piss in the pool; no one wants a part of that. The legislation, co-sponsored by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), provided more resources for Border Patrol, including funds for more officers and salary increases for current agents. It had an expedited deportation process for migrants who were feigning refugee status. That’s all moot when you leave the floodgates open for millions of illegal aliens.

One way to stem the flow is to finish the border wall, make it harder to claim asylum and separate the families upon arrest at the border. The latter is standard protocol—no one had a problem when the Obama administration did it. Remove the incentive to come here illegally and be rewarded. Eventual citizenship is an enormous magnet besides our extensive social safety nets.

Tillis wanted to get this issue off the table for both parties and look like a dealmaker ahead of what could be a very gridlocked and contentious session of Congress next year. So, infuriating your base is the way forward, sir? The Republican Party had no mandate to pull off something of this magnitude up on the Hill. Not after failing miserably to gain significant majorities in the aftermath of what turned out to be a disastrous 2022 midterm cycle. Arguably Democrats are in the same position: they kept the Senate but lost the House. But by default, Democrats were the only ones to gain anything from this bill. They, and Joe Biden, would have reaped all the credit and political dividends after that, while the GOP would have eaten itself alive—something the Left would have relished.

If this were a football game, Tillis was a master in the ‘let’s give them the first down’ defense. The question is, what will happen to the North Carolina Republican? Immigration has become one of the most salient issues for both parties, but conservatives want the border secure, immigration laws enforced, and illegals, primarily criminal aliens, deported. Tillis failed to check anything off that list with this failed push. He’s moved into primary territory over this brain-dead push to give Democrats what they want on immigration. I welcome anyone willing to take on this effort when Tillis is up for re-election in 2026.

The irony is that Tillis has political skills, winning back-to-back elections in a difficult state, with a history of producing one-term senators. Tillis broke the ‘one-term curse’ in 2020, though his Democratic opponent was also at the center of an embarrassing sex scandal that broke in October. But given the need to maximize base turnout in North Carolina elections, it makes Tillis’ immigration push even more puzzling. Is Tillis’ career dead? I’m going to say he accelerated its shelf life with this failed push, but 2026 is a long way away. If there’s a similar situation, some thought Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-FL) career was over after the school shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, in 2017. He won re-election by 16 points this year. And by some, I mean anti-gun liberals, so the Tillis camp shouldn’t glean too much into that comparison.