Reports were that Democratic turnout would be down in Clark County, Nevada—a liberal bastion in the state. This dip in voter turnout was expected; even Nevada liberals expected it, which is why there was a mad dash from both camps to lock up Washoe County. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto is now fighting for her political life against Republican Adam Laxalt due to critical voting blocs that are crucial components to the Reid political machine decided to sit out this election. Labor unions refused to endorse Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak. Latino voters had soured on Masto, who didn’t help herself when she ditched an award ceremony from a prominent Hispanic advocacy group. She was going to be honored for her service to the community.
Washoe County is evenly split concerning voter registration, but it’s also a portion of the state hammered by the Biden economic agenda. Nevada, overall, has been bludgeoned by Biden’s inflationary actions. Still, before the polls close, you can track some of the early votes, which has some political observers fretting for Democrats. The figures out of Clark County are insane.
I had thought that the statewide Rs -- or some of them -- would probably win rural Nevada by 50,000 votes. That would be in line with 2018. But every rural county I have seen shows eye-popping numbers for the GOP, the latest one being Nye.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 9, 2022
It could be much higher than 50,000. pic.twitter.com/LjAJ4XJpS5
Data:
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 9, 2022
-Almost 10-point turnout difference between Clark (41.5%) and Washoe (51.2%.) I know northerners are more civic-minded, but not THIS much more.
-With #s I have -- little rural data -- GOP has 16K statewide ballot lead. Well over 20K w/rurals.
All about mail for Ds.
The Republicans always have a turnout advantage on Election Day, but this kind of double-digit differential in the Dem stronghold would be unprecedented.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 8, 2022
Doesn't mean the mail will save all of them, but there has to be a lot of mail out there.
If not, it's a D cataclysm.
Let me put it in perspective: There were about 900,000. voters in Clark who had not voted before Election Day.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 8, 2022
Less than 10 percent of those had cast ballots by the last update.
This has never happened.
If it's really this much of an apple to other cycle oranges,
In 2018, Election Day turnout in Clark County was 223K, and there were a quarter of a million fewer active voters. Overall turnout was 60% in Clark.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 8, 2022
Today's is well under 100K, and overall Clark turnout is 40%. 40%!
So there is either a big mail boost coming or a deep red wave.
Culinary spox: “We are encouraging members to fill out ballots, skip the lines, & drop at the Vote Centers.”
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 8, 2022
Those are not counted yet.
Will it be enough to save Ds in face of massive GOP edge so far?
Many D groups on ground doing same, but GOP wave is pretty damn big.
Early voting totals shouldn’t be obsessed over, even when Republicans are in the lead, because Election Day voting usually erases any advantage in these data sets. But the turnout figures could be foreboding.
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