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Tipsheet

One Week Out From Election Day, One Common GOP Criticism Appears to Have Been Neutralized

AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) raised eyebrows and raised temperatures in August when he declared defeat for Senate Republicans, adding that the odds of retaking the upper chamber were slim due to “candidate quality” issues. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has been heavily criticized for his hands-off, lackadaisical approach regarding the GOP’s Senate campaign. Whether it’s fair criticism or not, his luxury yacht vacation this summer symbolized the GOP establishment’s blasé attitude toward some crucial races whose candidates were starved of funds.

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As it turns out, the candidate quality concerns were overblown. When working Americans are seeing their livelihoods get torched by the Biden agenda and an overall deteriorating economic situation—you’re going to consider voting for the other party heavily. And that’s exactly what’s happening one week from Election Day. Every indicator is now in the GOP’s favor; even white suburban women are fleeing Biden this year, showing a 26-point shift away from Democrats. That data set could spell electoral death for most liberal candidates this year.

 Also, the Trump-backed candidates didn’t turn out to be terrible—it was the opposite. The Democrats ended up looking either detached from reality or wholly incompetent. Democratic incumbent New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said that rising crime concerns are based on myths. Most Democrats don’t think the economy, inflation, and rising crime—the top three issues voters are concerned with most are real problems. It explains why the Left focused so much on abortion and other issues—like global warming and January 6—that doesn’t matter to most Americans. And Democrats are going to pay for this failed gamble (via Axios):

With less than a week left to go before the midterms, just about everything is breaking in Republicans' favor.

The big picture: Just a few weeks ago, Republicans seemed to be on the ropes thanks to a slate of polarizing, MAGA-aligned candidates with seemingly strong Democratic opponents, and a relentless Democratic focus on abortion.

Now, though, all of those fortunes seem to have been reversed.

Driving the news: Cook Political Report yesterday moved its ratings for 10 more House races — in solid-blue New York, New Jersey, Oregon, California and Illinois — in Republicans' direction.

If all of Cook’s "lean," 'likely" and "solid" Republican races hold, the GOP would only need to win 6 of the 35 "toss up" races to take the majority. Democrats would need to win 29 of the 35.

FiveThirtyEight's Senate forecast shows the race for the upper chamber remains in a "dead heat," but gave Republicans a lead (51/49) for the first time since July.

Between the lines: Candidate quality — perhaps Democrats’ biggest advantage this cycle — may not be as decisive as it once seemed.

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If this election cycle isn’t a red flag that the Democratic Party’s agenda isn’t geared toward helping working Americans, I don’t know what will get through. You need working people in your ranks, which means addressing the concerns of the white working class, the Left’s most hated voting bloc. Ignoring that voter group has led to nonwhite working-class voters drifting into the GOP. Forty percent of Hispanics plan to vote Republican this year, along with 21 percent of Black Americans. The Democratic advantage with women voters has also been erased. It’s too late to turn back the clock and repackage a messaging strategy—Democrats are stuck with a failing campaign narrative. A red tsunami will wash away most Democrats from the levers of power not a moment too soon.

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