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Tipsheet

Here's the HUGE Red Flag for Dems in Latest WSJ Poll

There’s more trouble brewing for Democrats in the recent slate of polls. These are the death memos for a party that wasted time on trivial matters about a little riot in January of 2021, global warming, and tried to gaslight everyone this cycle that this year’s most pressing societal issue isn’t high inflation or the economic recession but abortion access. The amount of money and time wasted on nonsensical ads about abortion while Americans rack up more debt and see their paychecks cannibalized by the Biden agenda is criminal. Yes, for a brief period, there were some high-pitched abortion hysterics but only in the areas where Democrats dominate, and those areas aren’t where elections are decided. You cannot put forward a national agenda with crossover appeal when your base consists of BLM members, hippies, feminists, and billionaire tech entrepreneurs.

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The bubble mentality of the Left killed them. Do these people not know that roughly two-thirds of the country are living paycheck-to-paycheck and that consumer debt has reached record levels? The suburban mom might be pro-choice, but putting food on the table, having her kids clothed, and keeping a roof over her family’s head is more vital. All three areas are being hammered by inflation that Joe Biden and the Democrats seem incapable of addressing, partially because they don’t care. Inflation has been an issue for months—inaction at this point is either gross incompetence or intentionally dismissive. Compounded by the worsening economic climate, that attitude has led to another critical Democratic voting bloc drifting to the Republicans: white suburban women. It’s not a slight departure—it’s a 26-point swing (via WSJ) [emphasis mine]:

“The focus on the economic stuff, particularly inflation, is helpful to the GOP headed into the final stretch,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster John Anzalone. Mr. Fabrizio said that voters who haven’t decided which party to back for Congress show high levels of concern about the economy and “look more likely to break Republican than they do Democrat, if they vote.” 

[…]

The shift in preference for the GOP comes as views of the economy have turned more dour than at any point in the past year. Only 19% say the economy is headed in the right direction, down 11 percentage points from August, while 71% say the economy is on the wrong track.

Voters lack confidence in President Biden’s economic leadership, with only 27% saying his policies have had a positive impact on the economy and 54% saying they have had a negative impact. A majority of voters—55%—disapprove of Mr. Biden’s overall job performance, compared with 43% who approve.

The GOP has seen a shift in its favor among several voter groups, including Latino voters and women, and particularly white suburban women. That group, which the pollsters said makes up 20% of the electorate, shifted 26 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll and now favors the GOP by 15 percentage points.

Midterm elections are generally considered a referendum on the party in power, and Democrats control both chambers of Congress and the White House.

Mr. Anzalone said the most concerning matter for Democrats is that independent voters don’t trust the party to handle rising prices. Whichever party is in power, he said, finds that independent voters “break against the party when you have economic diagnostics like we’re seeing. End of story, done.” He added, “Voters trust the Republicans on that, right now. That’s tough sledding for us.”

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The latest USA Today/Suffolk poll had a baseline of 40 percent of Hispanic voters ready to back Republicans and 21 percent of Black Americans. That’s also a troubling sign, as nonwhite centerpieces of the Democratic base are slipping away. Lastly, an NYT/Siena poll showed that the Democratic Party’s advantage with women had been erased overall.

As we close out the 2022 cycle, the anxiety around the economy has superseded any of the Democratic Party’s meaningless interests that are only viewed as essential by those who don’t need to work or can absorb the inflationary spikes. The defection regarding suburban women is a huge red flag that Democrats should get some Neosporin, bandages, and hydrogen peroxide ready—it could be a brutalization, and it won’t be quick.

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