I wanted to see a baseball game this spring. I want to see football games in the fall, with fans—full capacity. Given the doom and gloom attitude the Biden administration has taken with their COVID agenda, along with their waffled path schools reopening, prospects are not good. The liberal media’s consistent COVID hysteria doesn’t help. This weekend we did pass 500,000 deaths from COVID. It’s tragic, but there is light at the end of this thanks to President Trump and Operation Warp Speed that yielded two vaccines. Johnson and Johnson’s vaccine waits in the wings. Yet, Marty Makary, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health, also noted something else regarding COVID that he says scientists shouldn't hide from the public.
The truth is that cases are down 77 percent over the past six weeks. Makary goes line-by-line regarding why he thinks COVID will be mostly gone by April. Yes, you read that right. We underestimate natural immunity, testing doesn’t give the full picture, and vaccinations are ongoing as we speak. Given the fatality rate, he says that in reality, two-thirds of the country has already contracted the disease. He also adds that the medical experts he spoke with agree with his hypothesis but warn not to pop the champagne just yet as they want Americans to keep getting vaccinated for COVID.
He also adds that with new variants, the vaccine process should end as this virus will be sticking around for quite some time. The good news is that the nations that experienced new variants are also seeing a decrease in cases (via WSJ):
Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we’d call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?
In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.
Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. would also suggest much broader immunity than recognized. About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection.
I have argued for months that we could save more American lives if those with prior Covid-19 infection forgo vaccines until all vulnerable seniors get their first dose. Several studies demonstrate that natural immunity should protect those who had Covid-19 until more vaccines are available. Half my friends in the medical community told me: Good idea. The other half said there isn’t enough data on natural immunity, despite the fact that reinfections have occurred in less than 1% of people—and when they do occur, the cases are mild.
But the consistent and rapid decline in daily cases since Jan. 8 can be explained only by natural immunity.
Many experts, along with politicians and journalists, are afraid to talk about herd immunity. The term has political overtones because some suggested the U.S. simply let Covid rip to achieve herd immunity. That was a reckless idea. But herd immunity is the inevitable result of viral spread and vaccination. When the chain of virus transmission has been broken in multiple places, it’s harder for it to spread—and that includes the new strains.
Some medical experts privately agreed with my prediction that there may be very little Covid-19 by April but suggested that I not to talk publicly about herd immunity because people might become complacent and fail to take precautions or might decline the vaccine. But scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth. As we encourage everyone to get a vaccine, we also need to reopen schools and society to limit the damage of closures and prolonged isolation.
“My prediction that Covid-19 will be mostly gone by April is based on laboratory data, mathematical data, published literature, and conversations with experts,” wrote Makary. I sure hope so. Right now, kids suffering from depression and anxiety have spiked amid the school lockdowns. It’s hit record levels and now we’re dealing with a slew of suicides. It’s why San Francisco wants to reopen, which has led to them suing their own school board.
The science already says it’s safe to reopen schools. By April, we could be on track to get everything back to normal, which will probably screw teachers’ unions’ arguments defending their refusal to get back to work. The Democratic lockdown regime could be gutted soon, and we can then take into account the extent of the losses.