Remember when Trump mocked the media for suggesting he could never win because of the Democratic blue wall in the Rust Belt?
“We shattered that sucker,” in the month following the election. Most liberal news polls have Joe Biden way ahead by either oversampling Democrats, the college-educated, and recycling registered voter samples. It’s not good. Even Fox News’ polling has been shoddy. Trafalgar was the most accurate battleground state poll in 2016. And right now, things are trending towards Trump in the Rust Belt. It’s not re-shattering per se as Trump has already taken it over from Democrats post-2016, but a hypothetical re-shattering? Sure. A hostile takeover? Maybe. Heck, in 2016, it was CNN's Van Jones who warned Democrats about the blue wall being super vulnerable. Also, Arizona which many are seeing as one of the key states in this contest is also trending towards Republicans.
Summary of Trafalgar polls for Rust Belt and AZ:
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 25, 2020
PA (Sept 25)
Biden 48.1
Trump 45.9
MI (Sept 24)
Donald Trump 46.7%
Joe Biden 46.0%
WI (Aug 26)
Donald Trump 46.2%
Joe Biden 45.4%
MN (Aug 20)
Joe Biden 46.9%
Donald Trump 46.5%
AZ (Aug 10)
Donald Trump 46.2%
Joe Biden 44.8%
Yes! it is AZ + 1. If AZ did not happen then Trump needs two from the Rust Belt. The AZ +1 is the easiest path. https://t.co/9sZprao49J
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 25, 2020
Per my last tweet: Note that Trump needs AZ + 1 of MN, WI, MI, or PA to get to 270. Those Trafalgar polls look pretty good for Trump right now. Of course, we look forward to more polling from them. The closer we get to Nov, the more relevant their polls will be.
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 25, 2020
Arizona: https://t.co/q8fZntgLCd
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 25, 2020
1) TRUMP APPROVAL: 52%
— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) September 25, 2020
10th straight day in 50s
(per Rasmussen Reports)@realDonaldTrump approval % is 4 pts better than Obama on this day Sept 25, 2012:
Trump (2020): 52%
Obama (2012): 48%
(likely voters)https://t.co/0TPS1xOpjt
We have a Supreme Court fight that could very well keep the GOP in charge of the Senate as it will undoubtedly help the GOP in Iowa, North Carolina, Colorado, and possibly Arizona. Sen. Martha McSally looked as if her re-elect campaign was DOA. Now, there could be some new life since nothing unites the conservative base or get them animated more than a Supreme Court fight. And we still remember the slimy character assassination attempt Democrats tried to pull with Brett Kavanaugh. And in all of this, Joe Biden is missing. He’s hiding. Democrats on the Hill are doing all the heavy lifting here and even they appear to be divided, whipping out their knives to shank Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA, figurately speaking, the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee because many think she’s too weak to lead the fight.
Again, there is no fight. The GOP has locked up the votes to get whoever Trump nominates, which at this point looks like Judge Amy Coney Barrett out of committee and onto the floor for a confirmation vote. This seat will be filled before Election Day. And with that, a Republican Congress with another term for Trump? We sure hope so.
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