So, with Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court after a hellacious confirmation battle, it’s no shocker that liberals are angry. They lost. We won. Regardless, Democrats losing means it was a great day in America. Still, we’ve heard about the blue wave, the hyper-Democratic voter enthusiasm, and how some revolution will begin now that Kavanaugh has been seated, undoubtedly constrained to the most liberal parts of the country. The generic ballot advantage has favored the Democratic Party all year, though, in recent weeks, the Left’s character assassination campaign against Kavanaugh has energized Republicans like never before. Republican women are furious over this smear campaign, and they’re ready to punish Democrats for it. Not all women, indeed.
This is pretty interesting https://t.co/vJ2Pf7kyq0
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018
With a generic ballot lead of D+7 or so, it's very possible for polls to about right overall, but for Dems to lose the House because the GOP ekes out wins in lots of the tossup districts. Once you get up to D+9 or so, the dam breaks and GOP would need a systematic polling error.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018
We have the D's generic ballot/popular vote lead trending toward +7.5 or so. So while the topline numbers in our House forecast haven't changed much, we've crossed an important conceptual threshold where the eke-it-one-district-at-a-time scenario is back on the table for the GOP.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 7, 2018
Now, with the GOP base just as animated, it’s now confirmed that the Democrats’ "destroy Kavanaugh" campaign wasn’t a brilliant kill shot; it was a dirty bomb that blew up in their faces. Pollsters from The New York Times, CBS News, and FiveThirtyEight are giving rather measured analyses on the upcoming midterm election, which are 29 days away. In short, the Democrats could fall short in retaking the House. With the GOP in better shape for the Senate races, which has always been the case, the fact that the Left could fail in their titanic endeavor would be another meltdown of epic proportions; one that I want to happen so desperately. Mr. Pollowitz at Twitchy compiled the threads.
Maybe the easiest way to summarize this fact: the FiveThirtyEight forecast, last I looked, had Democrats favored to win +33 seats, well over the 23 they need.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 7, 2018
But FiveThirtyEight only had them favored in 218 individual contests, precisely the number needed for a majority
Probably relatedly, this is also the pattern in our polls. Dems have comfortably led enough of our polls to be at +18. There are then another ~20 races within 5 points. Dems wouldn't need many. But they haven't actually led in most of them. There's a lot of GOP < +3/4.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 7, 2018
This has always been the danger for the Democrats. The GOP's one big, potential advantage in this election is the House's political geography. If they could take advantage of it, by driving House results towards pres results, it's a very long night, even in a 06/10-type wave.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 7, 2018
Nate Cohn of The Times:
With so many opportunities to win just a few more seats, it’s easy to see why the Democrats are considered favorites. And with so many opportunities over all, it’s easy to imagine how the Democrats could gain 40 or more seats. Even modest late movement toward the Democrats would topple many additional Republicans and potentially put an entire additional tier of seats into play.
On the other hand, modest late movement toward the Republicans could give the party a chance to sweep a pretty long list of tossup districts. Any number of factors could push the race one way or another.
[…]
Polls from Quinnipiac, Emerson, IBD, Reuters/Ipsos, YouGov and Marist showed the Democratic edge on the generic ballot falling by an average of four points. Monmouth polls in Virginia’s 10th District and Pennsylvania’s First showed the Democrats falling by three points. And five Fox News polls of top Senate races showed the Democratic edge falling by an average of two points.
[…]
The possibility that the Kavanaugh nomination is helping Republicans in Republican-leaning areas is important because the fight for control of both the House and the Senate will be determined largely in Republican-leaning areas. This simple fact has always been the G.O.P.’s biggest advantage. If the electorate is polarized along the lines of recent presidential elections, as it was during the Obama presidency, Republicans could hold down their losses considerably.
Democrats have been considered clear favorites in the fight for House control because polls and special election results have made it seem that the electorate wouldn’t be so polarized, allowing them to compete in many Republican-leaning districts. But if Democrats can’t break through and actually carry the many Republican-leaning districts they’ve put into play, Republicans could stay highly competitive in the fight for House control and even survive a wave election.
Today’s House map is so favorable to Republicans that based on recent presidential election results, even a 2006- or 2010-type wave — even a rerun of the highly polarized Virginia governor’s and state legislative races last November — would yield only around a net-27 seats for Democrats, by our estimates. Yes, that would be enough for a majority, but it would be close enough that it wouldn’t take too much luck for Republicans to hold on.
The 2006 election is a particularly telling example. Democrats picked up 31 seats, not much more than Democrats need now, with a set of opportunities fairly similar to what the Democrats have today. And the Democratic gain was padded by many victories against Republicans embroiled in scandal. Without those gains, the Democrats might not have picked up the number of seats that Democrats need this year.
There’s another reason 2006 is a troubling example for Democrats: The Republicans avoided a total rout by winning around 20 districts by less than four points. It’s not hard to imagine something like that happening again. In fact, Republicans have led in 12 Upshot/Siena polls by less than four points already.
CBS News' latest Battleground Tracker polls show Democrats are having mixed success in their red state battles https://t.co/LvEX4cYCNp pic.twitter.com/sg9cCCYKjK
— CBS News (@CBSNews) October 7, 2018
Guy had more on the "Kavanaugh Effect" impacting the Senate races. It's just a friendly reminder that it isn’t over until it's over and that every vote counts. Don’t forget to vote this November. If Democrats retake any chamber, or both (doomsday scenario), the Trump agenda is finished. Impeachment proceedings against the president and Justice Kavanaugh would begin, and if you thought Russian collusion hysteria was bad, it'd be jacked up on steroids with these jacka**es in charge. And it’ll go beyond that—every aspect that they hate about the president will be the subject of an investigation. You’ll have insufferable cretins like Mazie Hirono, Chuck Schumer, Richard “Da Nang Dick” Blumenthal, and Ted Lieu taking a two-year long victory lap. The economy is booming. The nation’s confidence is back—a Democratic win in November would torpedo that.
But as of right now, it's far from a sure thing to call Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer Madam Speaker and Mr. Leader respectively. I'll take that, but 29 days from now I hope the GOP holds the line and triggers another Democratic tantrum.
So what happens to the Dem field in 2020 if we wake up on Nov 7 (or whenever the heck CA finishes its count) and the Dems have a net gain of 20 in the House... and GOP maintains control of the Senate as well...
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 7, 2018
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