Looking down-ballot, things are better for the GOP concerning the Senate, which were already in a tough spot considered the slim margin for error in their re-elect campaign. Democrats just needed to win four seats (Tim Kaine being the tie-breaker) to reclaim the chamber. Five states had GOP incumbents defending their seats in states that Obama won in 2012. Now, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight says that Republicans have a 54 percent chance of retaining the chamber. They also noted that Clinton's dip in the polls has hurt their chances.
The site has Sens. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Roy Blunt (R-MO), Richard Burr (R-NC), and Marco Rubio (R-FL) winning re-election. Rep. Todd Young is expected to beat former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh in the open seat left by retiring Republican Sen. Dan Coats. While they only give Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) a 38 percent chance of beating Democratic challenger Katie McGinty, it’s possible that he does survive. It’s a virtual dead heat in a state where the presidential election-level turnout should have Toomey updating his resume. The fact that McGinty is could face state ethics charges for campaigning on government time, and Toomey’s moderate streak (he’s pro-gun control), which bodes well for those types of voters that dominate the collar counties around Philadelphia, could be factors that allows Toomey to eek out a win. If you're following the Pennsylvania race, be sure to look at Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, and Allegheny counties on election night. These places are where the state will be decided.
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Nevertheless, it’s also possible that he loses handily. And it's possible that Democrats make pick-ups elsewhere, like in Nevada and Wisconsin, which could make things tight for the GOP. For now, this gauge, overall, is a good sign heading into tomorrow, given how commentators thought that Trump would be the albatross around Republicans’ necks down-ballot.
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