Does Obama Have Coattails?

Matt Lewis
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Posted: Aug 06, 2008 10:34 AM

... Apparently not in his home state of Illinois.

Rep. Peter Roskam (IL-6) just released a poll conducted July 20-22 by Public Opinion Strategies (POS), showing him ahead of his Democratic opponent by 30 points.  Roskam's election two years ago was a squeaker. 

Rep. Mark Kirk (IL-10) released a June poll shows him 21 points ahead.  You can read about it here.

Roskam increased his lead by five points since April.  At the same time Obama opened up an 8 point lead against John McCain. 

Similarly, Kirk's polling shows a similar willingness of voters to split tickets in his district: 

"In a district that is 33 percent Republican and 35 percent Democrat, the answer to this question will be decided by 'independents' and 'ticket splitters,'" the polling memo stated. "Currently, these likely Obama voters are breaking for Kirk by a 2-to-1 margin and have a significantly highly favorable opinion of Mark Kirk."