Barone Counts Delegates

The bottom line: If the popular vote in Texas splits about evenly, either candidate could end up with maybe a 10-delegate edge if she or he got lucky in her or his percentages in certain districts, but it's likely to get much closer than that. A close popular vote Clinton win gets her no significant distance closer to pledged delegate parity. And of course Obama looks likely to be better organized to score in the caucuses that will be held later that night. Clinton needs to improve on her current standing in Texas to get her closer to the nomination. And a popular vote loss here looks like curtains for her campaign.

The bottom line is that a 7-point advantage in the poll (50-43) seems likely to give Clinton a 6 percentage point advantage in delegates (76-67). That's nine delegates, a long way from overcoming Obama's current lead of 99 delegates (1,374 to 1,275) in realclearpolitics.com. The Democrats' proportional representation rules, combined with determining so many delegates by congressional districts, make it hugely difficult for any candidate who is behind in a close delegate race to forge out into a lead.