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Tipsheet

That Classic Fox Bias (Updated With Poll Reax, Both Sad and Happy)

The Fox/Opinion Dynamics Poll finds Dems up 13 on the generic ballot.

RNC tools!

Update: Allah gets gloomy. Join him if you wish.

Oh well. All that newfound optimism was making me uneasy anyway. It’s always better to be pessimistic — that way you can never be disappointed.

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My optimism, on the other hand, is the Rocky of political outlooks. Keep punching it, and it'll keep standing up, maybe even after you start feeling sorry for it. But just remember, it's that kind of dumb, brutish, determined hope that brought Rocky win over Apollo Creed, and one over Ivan Drago, okay? And, no, I don't want to talk about the Clubber Lang fight.

Update: John Hawkins predicts a House loss of 22-29 seats.

Update: Obi Wan weighs in with guarded optimism. I like it. I like it a lot.

He sees two possible concerns: 1) whether the wave that we've seen in the generics continues, or whether it was like a pendulum, and will fade or swing back by Election Day and 2) some sort of scenario where with all the close races, too many Republicans fall just short. Clearly, while the outlook is much better for Republicans than just a week ago, the party isn't out of the woods yet.

He describes himself as "happily befuddled"; he says the possibility is there for a Hollywood ending - angry at the negative campaign, and want to support the president in a good old 1950s way. Right now, nobody should rule anything out.

 

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