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California Voters Prefer Newsom to Harris If Biden Doesn't Run in 2024: Poll

AP Photo/Susan Walsh

This month, panelists on ABC’s “This Week” agreed that Vice President Kamala Harris is not positioned to be “next in line” for the Democratic nomination for president in 2024 if President Joe Biden decides not to run for reelection.

In the segment, host George Stephanopoulos discussed President Biden’s 2024 presidential run with Democracy for America CEO Yvette Simpson and ABC’s chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl. The panel discussed if Harris would be the Democratic nominee in the event that Biden does not run again in 2024.

"You don't say Kamala Harris is the heir apparent?" Stephanopoulos asked.

“She should be. I don’t know if she’s been positioned to do that. She should have been positioned powerfully, and able to actually be a person that could lead, and she’s been in the back,” Simpson replied. 

"She's powerful, she's young, she's able to get the energy, but we have not seen her strong and I don't know why the Biden administration didn't position her that way,” she added.

A new poll shows that California voters would prefer Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) in the 2024 Democratic primary over current Vice President Kamala Harris. 

The poll released Friday from the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies and Los Angeles Times found that about six in 10 respondents are against Biden running for reelection in 2024. More than 70 percent of respondents opposed former President Donald Trump running for reelection.

Just 3 in 10 California voters in the poll said they supported another Biden candidacy, while 61% were opposed — nearly identical to the share of the vote he won in the state in 2020. Among poll respondents who voted for him two years ago, nearly half said they opposed him running again. And among voters with favorable views of Biden’s current job performance, nearly 30% said they would not like to see him run in 2024.

Mark DiCamillo, who co-directs the Institute of Governmental Studies, said that “the age factor has to be looming in many voters’ minds.” Biden is turning 80 years old in November.

Broken down by political party, 87 percent of Republicans surveyed are against Biden running in 2024. Fifty-six of Democrats feel this way. Sixty-five percent of “non-partisan” respondents do not want to see Biden run in 2024.

The Times’ write-up noted how Harris trails Newsom and has equal support as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (D) as voters’ choice for the Democratic nomination if Biden does not run. 

“While many California Democrats are not convinced that Biden should run again, the absence of a clear Democratic alternative may afford [him] more space in avoiding a serious primary challenge should he decide to seek reelection,” Eric Schickler, co-director of the Institute of Governmental Studies, said.

In the findings, 25 percent of respondents said they would prefer Newsom as the Democratic nominee in 2024. Eighteen percent said Sanders, 18 percent said Harris, 13 percent said U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and seven percent said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

“You’d think the sitting vice president would be a natural alternative [to Biden], especially one from our own state,” DiCamillo said in the write-up. “That’s not coming through in this poll.”

Newsom pulls further ahead when respondents’ second-choice candidates are factored in. A quarter of California Democratic and no-party-preference voters cited Newsom as their first or second pick, while 18% said Sanders and Harris were in their top two.

In the San Francisco Bay Area — where Newsom and Harris both built their political careers — Newsom has an 8-point edge over Harris as voters’ first or second choice.

The Times’ noted that unlike the Democratic side, there is a clearer consensus on the Republican side for a GOP candidate if Trump does not run for reelection. Twenty-seven percent of registered California Republicans in the poll said that GOP Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would be their first choice with Trump on the ballot. Support for DeSantis climbed to 53 percent with Trump off the ballot. In a “Trump-free” primary, nine percent of registered California Republicans said they would support former Vice President Mike Pence.

Overall, Biden’s approval rating among California voters is evenly split at 48 percent approval and 48 percent disapproval.

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