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Poll Shows the Impact Abortion Will Have on Americans' Midterm Votes

AP Photo/Amanda Andrade Rhoades

Last month, a leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court case Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization showed the Justices poised to overturn the landmark case Roe v. Wade, which legalized abortion in all 50 states in 1973. Americans in a poll released today shared how abortion will impact how they will cast their vote in the midterm elections this November.

Voters in a new Gallup poll say that the issue of abortion will impact their vote in the midterm elections more than ever. The agency began asking the question to voters in 1992. This sentiment is shared more heavily by Democrat voters rather than Republicans, Gallup's write-up emphasizes. 

In the wake of the Supreme Court leak, abortion appears to be a crucial voting issue for more Democratic and liberal voters than for Republican and conservative voters. Whereas 37% of Democrats and 38% of liberals say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, 24% of Republicans and conservatives say the same. And fewer than one in 10 Democrats (9%) and liberals (6%) say abortion is not a major voting issue for them, compared with 21% of Republicans and 22% of conservatives…There are also significant gender differences among registered voters, with twice as many women (36%) as men (17%) saying they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion.

The poll found that 90 percent of registered Democrats identify as "pro-choice" and 70 percent of Republicans identify as "pro-life." Overall, 58 percent of voters identify as "pro-choice" and 38 percent identify as "pro-life." 

Only 16 percent of voters in the survey said abortion is "not a major issue" ahead of the midterms. More than half, 54 percent, said that abortion is "one of many important factors." Twenty-seven percent said that their candidate "must share their views" on the subject. 

Given the increase in the percentage of voters who say they would only vote for candidates who share their views on abortion and the increase in pro-choice identification this year, the issue appears to be a greater advantage for the pro-choice side than the pro-life side in this fall's elections.

Overall, 17% of U.S. registered voters identify as pro-choice and say a candidate must share their views on abortion to receive their vote. That compares with 10% of voters who identify as pro-life and require policy alignment on abortion. In most prior election years, the two sides were more closely matched on this measure of abortion-centric voting, with pro-life abortion issue voters having a slight edge.

The poll was conducted from May 2 to May 22, just hours before the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court was published. 


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