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New Poll Predicts GOP Governor Will Win 2022 Gubernatorial Election

AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack

This year, 36 states will have gubernatorial elections. There are currently 16 Democratic governors and 20 Republican governors holding office where the elections will take place. A poll released this week shows one GOP governor winning reelection against each Democrat running to take his seat.

Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is projected to win reelection in the Florida gubernatorial election, a new poll released Tuesday by Mason-Dixon Polling shows. Additionally, the poll showed that DeSantis’ approval rating barely fluctuated over the past year. 

In the survey, 53 percent of respondents approve of the job DeSantis is doing as governor. Forty-three percent disapprove and 4 percent are “not sure.” In February 2021, 53 percent of respondents approved of DeSantis’ job performance, 42 percent disapproved, and 5 percent said “not sure.”

Split up by region, DeSantis has an approval rating of 62 percent in North Florida, 57 percent in Central Florida, 55 percent in Tampa Bay, 64 percent in Southwest Florida, and 38 percent in Southeast Florida.

When it comes to the upcoming election, the poll shows DeSantis leading all the Democratic contenders. 

“When matched up against his current potential Democratic challengers, DeSantis receives the support of slightly over half of Florida’s voters and his leads provide a decent cushion at this point in the race,” the poll write-up noted. 

“Statewide, DeSantis leads former governor and current Representative Charlie Crist by a 51%-43% margin, Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried by a 53%-42% and State Senator Annette Taddeo by 53%-37%,” the findings showed. “These leads all appear to be related to DeSantis' name recognition advantage, although Crist is almost comparably well known.”

Statewide, the poll found that 44 percent of Democratic primary voters support Crist, 27 percent support Fied, and 3 percent support Taddeo. More than one-fourth, 26 percent, remain undecided.

Forty-nine percent of respondents said they recognize the name “Ron DeSantis” as “favorable.” Thirty-seven percent said they recognize it as “unfavorable,” while 11 percent remain neutral. Thirty-two percent of respondents said they recognize the name “Charlie Crist” as favorable, while 35 percent indicated they recognize his name as “unfavorable.”

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from Feb. 7 through Feb. 10. It included 625 registered Florida voters. The margin of error is “no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points.” The poll included an “oversample” of 400 likely Democratic primary voters. The margin of error for the primary results is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

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