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Tipsheet

The Final House Race Has Been Called

AP Photo/Steve Karnowski

Democrat Adam Gray defeated incumbent Republican Rep. John Duarte in California’s 13th Congressional District race—the final House seat to be called. 

Gray, a former member of the California State Assembly, won by less than 200 votes. The contest was one of the closest in the nation.

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“I’m honored to become the Congressman-elect for California’s 13th Congressional District. The final results confirm this district is ready for independent and accountable leadership that always puts the Valley’s people ahead of partisan politics,” Gray wrote in a statement posted on X. “But the work has just begun.”

“In Washington, I’ll work everyday to deliver the resources that the Valley needs: clean water, better educational opportunities, stronger infrastructure, and more good-paying jobs,” he continued. “And you can count on me to build bipartisan relationships to accomplish these goals.” 

The results mean Republicans control the House, 220-215, which will be an especially tenuous majority over the next several months.

House Republicans are expected to start the new Congress on Jan. 3 already down by at least one seat. 

That’s because their final tally includes the Florida seat won by Republican Matt Gaetz, who resigned from the House in November. The former congressman has said that he does not intend to take the oath of office for his seat in the state’s western panhandle, even after withdrawing from consideration to be President-elect Donald Trump’s attorney general.

The GOP margins are expected to shrink even further in the session’s early months when another Florida Republican, Rep. Michael Waltz, resigns to serve as Trump’s national security adviser — a White House role that doesn’t require Senate confirmation. Waltz is expected to step down on or around Inauguration Day on Jan. 20. 

The timing of outgoing House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik’s departure is slightly less clear, though it’s likely that the New York lawmaker will win fast approval from the Republican-led Senate to become U.S. ambassador to the United Nations in the next administration.

The special elections for Gaetz’s and Waltz’s seats are slated for April 1, according to the Florida secretary of State’s office, with primaries on Jan. 28. And once Stefanik resigns, New York law gives Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul a 10-day window to call the special election, which would need to be set for between 70 and 80 days after that.

And until those seats are filled, Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and the Republican leadership team would be left with no votes to spare in a chamber with otherwise full attendance: Losing even a single GOP vote would result in a 216-216 tie. (Roll Call)

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