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JPMorgan Warns About 'Cruel Summer' Ahead

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Posted: May 19, 2022 11:45 AM
JPMorgan Warns About 'Cruel Summer' Ahead

Source: AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File

Not only are Americans going to face a "summer of rage," as abortion advocates have promised—many of whom have already turned violent—it's also going to be a "cruel summer," a JPMorgan analyst has warned, but for vastly different reasons. 

"Typically, refiners produce more gasoline ahead of the summer road-trip season, building up inventories. But this year, since mid-April, U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen counter seasonally," wrote Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan's head of global oil and commodities research, in a report for investors titled, "Cruel Summer." 

Kaneva said the national average could reach California-levels, surpassing $6 per gallon by August. 

"With expectations of strong driving demand...US retail price could surge another 37% by August," the report said. 

Not everyone in the industry thinks it will get that high, however. 

"It's hard to get to $6," Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told CNN. "Before we get there, we would have significant demand destruction, not only here, but around the world."

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, echoed that sentiment, saying: "I personally think we'd see a recession before we'd see a national average of $6."

De Haan saiddoesn't agree with JPMorgan -- at least, not yet. However, given the widening imbalance between supply and demand, he conceded, "I don't think much is impossible in this market." (CNN)

The national gas average for regular stands at $4.589 as of Thursday, according to AAA. Diesel is considerably higher at $5.577. 

JPMorgan's forecast comes as the Biden administration has continued targeting the oil and gas industry, recently canceling oil and gas lease opportunities in multiple states.