UPDATE: It gets worse.
Too early to be sure about the *exact* numbers here, but seems like state polls missed by 5 points, on avg, in 2016 by understating noncollege support for the GOP. Then a bunch of pollsters studied the issue and changed their methodologies for 2020 ... and whiffed by 7 points. https://t.co/0enGxmRw0O
— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) November 4, 2020
***Original post***
Votes for the presidential race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are still being counted in Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina this morning, but while it is unclear who will ultimately win, it's clear who the losers are.
Going into election night, pollsters across the board (with the exception of Trafalgar) predicted Biden would wipe out Trump by wide margins in the swing states. They also predicted a Senate turnover to Democrats and substantial victories for the left in the House. That's not what happened, Trump over performed significantly and the bad numbers look like they're going to be worse than 2016.
We're not final yet of course, but a look at how much Trump overperfomed the RCP averages in swing states:
— Josh Jordan (@NumbersMuncher) November 4, 2020
OH: +7
WI: +6
IA: +6
TX: +5
FL: +4.5
NC: +1
GA: +1
AZ: -2.5
MN: -3
This could end up being a much worse night for polling than 2016, which is pretty remarkable.
As Leah covered earlier this morning, Tucker Carlson explained this reckoning last night.
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"Something really went wrong in the way we predicted a number of these races,” he said. "I can name some of the people that should be much fired immediately, and I think I will. I just need to calm enough to get their names on paper."
Contrary to prevailing wisdom, most polling organizations will feel comfortable being so wrong, because they helped depress and suppress the Trump vote. Mission accomplished.
— Legal Insurrection (@LegInsurrection) November 4, 2020
“Political polling is a fraud. It claims to measure something that, it is now unmistakably clear, cannot be accurately measured,” writes John Podhoretz.https://t.co/QOhcTqwNcu
— James A. Gagliano (@JamesAGagliano) November 4, 2020
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