Who Will Win Texas' Democratic Senate Primary? This Poll Might Have the Answer.

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30) is leading in the final poll to be published before the Texas Democratic primary election.

Crockett is holding a double-digit lead over state Rep. James Talarico, according to a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll leading up to the March 3 election.

The survey found Crockett at 56 percent support compared to Talarico at 44 percent among likely Democratic primary voters. Crockett’s support was strongest among black voters while Talarico polled better with white voters.

However, Crockett led among seniors and voters without a college degree. The two candidates were about even with Hispanic voters.

An earlier survey had Crockett leading Talarico 47 percent to 39 percent.

Talarico’s campaign garnered national attention after a dispute tied to FCC rules on “equal time” and a planned appearance on “The Late Show” with Stephen Colbert. CBS did not air Talarico’s interview with Colbert on television. The network did release it on YouTube.

Jasmine Crockett says she’s leading the polls to become Texas’s next senator. Does she have your vote or nah? 👀🇺🇸✨

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— Rain Drops Media (@Raindropsmedia1) February 25, 2026

Colbert explained that this happened because CBS’ lawyers cautioned him about new Federal Communications Commission guidance requiring networks to give equal airtime to all candidates in a race.

The network issued a statement saying the show “was not prohibited by CBS from broadcasting the interview with Rep. James Talarico” but that it only provided legal guidance pointing out that airing the interview could trigger the FCC’s equal-time rule.

FCC Chair Brendan Carr claimed Talarico had run a “hoax” to raise money for his campaign. Democratic FCC Commissioner Anna Gomez slammed the network, accusing it of “corporate capitulation” and argued that CBS is still protected by the First Amendment. Still, the controversy helped the candidate raise millions of dollars in a single day.

However, this did not necessarily result in more support for Talarico, who has an uphill battle if he wants to become the party’s nominee.

The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs published a report noting that neither candidate would fare better against a Republican opponent. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is running against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) for the GOP nomination, led both candidates by two points in a potential matchup. Cornyn led Crockett by two points and Talarico by one point.

Still, if the results of that poll are accurate, neither Republican candidate will have an easy path to ensuring Republicans still occupy this seat. This is why Democrats are pouring millions of dollars into the campaign.

Regardless of who wins the nomination, the Texas Senate race will be one to watch heading into the midterms. Democrats are hoping to flip this seat blue, speculating that it could kick off more Democratic victories in the Lone Star State, which Republicans have dominated for decades.

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