The murder rate plummeted to historic levels in 2025, according to a new study.
After crime spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been on a downward trajectory over recent years, with several major cities reporting declines in violent and property crimes, according to The New York Times.
Last year will likely register the lowest national homicide rate in 125 years and the largest single-year drop on record, according to a new analysis of 2025 crime data.
Violence has been falling for several years. But last year for the first time, all seven categories of violent crime tracked by the analysis fell below prepandemic levels. The numbers provide further evidence that the surge in violence in the early 2020s was a departure during a time of massive social upheaval, not a new normal.
The analysis of data from 40 cities, by the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan think tank, found across-the-board decreases in crime last year compared to 2019: 25 percent fewer homicides, 13 percent fewer shootings and 29 percent fewer carjackings. Between 2024 and 2025, only drug crimes went in the wrong direction, but they were still lower than in 2019.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation has not yet released nationwide crime data for all of 2025, but statistics published by cities and collected by independent researchers are already telling the latest chapter of a remarkable story. In just half a decade, cities have gone from upswings in murder and mayhem the likes of which some had not seen in 25 years to declines themselves worthy of headlines.
The spikes began in 2020 with the shock of the global pandemic and, just a few months later, sweeping protests over police killings, both of which strained the capacity of law enforcement.
Homicide rates in Baltimore dropped by 60 percent — a record low — in 2025. Other cities like Salt Lake City, Chattanooga, and El Paso have seen their homicide rates halved between 2019 and 2025.
The New York Times notes that researchers are having trouble explaining the drop in homicide. They cited factors like improved policing and medical, along with social and environmental factors like aging demographics, obesity, and widespread surveillance in major cities.
Charles Fain Lehman told The Times, “Basically, the structural factors in society are pushing us towards less crime.” Emily Owens suggested that traditional street crime could be moving online as “The way that people interact with each other has been changing dramatically and becoming much less face-to-face, which is sort of a requirement for violence, right?”
CBS News noted that revamped policing strategies could have also contributed to the decline. In many cities, law enforcement is focusing on specific neighborhoods where most shootings occur instead of trying to police entire cities equally.
Police departments have increased staffing and modernized their investigative techniques, which have helped to solve more cases.
Community efforts have also played a critical role. Many cities have programs involving community members taking what experts call “informal guardianship” of their neighborhoods, defusing conflicts before they turn violent.
No single factor accounts for the decline in violent crime. But the combination of these factors has produced a better result when it comes to protecting public safety.
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