Over the past decade, there have been plenty of warning signs showing where we are headed as a society — especially when it comes to political violence.
The findings of a new survey from the Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI) show that those warning signs are quickly becoming reality.
On September 10, 2025, a gunman fatally shot conservative activist Charlie Kirk during an event at Utah Valley University. Many, including myself, viewed the assassination as a crossing of the Rubicon into a political atmosphere in which violence against political opponents had become increasingly acceptable to many Americans.
Just three months earlier, Minnesota State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband were murdered in their home in another politically motivated act of violence.
These are far from being isolated incidents; they are symptoms of something much darker taking root in the American psyche.
The study found that 67 percent of left-leaning Americans believe there is at least some justification for assassinating President Donald Trump. This is a disturbing increase from 56 percent in April 2025. But here’s where it gets even more disturbing: Researchers found that 54 percent of right-leaning respondents said the same about assassinating New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Altogether, almost two-thirds of respondents (66 percent) indicated a level of justification for murdering either or both figures.
This goes beyond simple partisan tensions. Indeed, if the results of the study are accurate, they suggest we are seeing a wider acceptance of political violence as a legitimate tool for affecting change.
Here’s another interesting factoid: Support for political violence is about 15 percent higher among women than men.
The obvious question is: what’s driving this trend?
The researchers referred to a “broader crisis of national confidence” as a contributing factor. Those who justified violence were significantly more likely to believe America is in decline. Among leftists who believe the country is in decline, 70.3 percent expressed at least some justification for murdering Trump, compared to 54 percent who don’t believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.
The pattern holds on the right, although to a lesser degree, with 59.8 percent who believe in America’s decline justifying violence against Mamdani compared to 47.8 percent of those who don’t.
Social media is also fueling the problem. Left-leaning respondents who use social media the most frequently scored 50 percent higher on justifying violence compared to those who use it less. On the right, heavy social media users scored 59 percent higher in believing violence is appropriate.
The study refers to “Relative Deprivation” theory, which is the idea that when people’s expectations don’t match reality, there is a higher likelihood of violence. "When there is a significant sense of disillusionment or disalignment between what citizens expect from their society and what they receive, aggression may ensue," the report explains.
Even more ominous is the result of a Harvard 2025 Youth Poll finding that only 13 percent of adults between 18 and 29 believe the nation is headed in the right direction, which does not bode well for the future.
When two-thirds of Americans believe political violence can be justified under certain circumstances, this is no longer a fringe issue among radical extremists. It could mean that these attitudes are gradually becoming more mainstream as time moves forward.
If this trend continues, political violence won’t merely be an outlier. Instead, it will become the norm. Political candidates, media figures, and even regular Americans could face actual threats to their lives. This is not the America most of us want to live in. But if we don’t address this problem, it could very well become reality.
