Right out of the gate, a few words of caution against Republican exuberance. First, as we also wrote in our Nevada analysis on Monday, it's risky business to extrapolate too much from incomplete early or mail-in voting patterns, especially compared to 2020. That year featured a black swan-level confluence of events: A presidential election in the midst of a vastly disruptive and destabilizing global pandemic. Using that election, after which Joe Biden delivered an outdoor victory speech to supporters honking their horns in their cars, as a baseline for much of anything seems...potentially faulty, in terms of sound analysis. Proceed with caution. Second, Florida's pre-election day metrics looked incredibly strong for the GOP in 2022 because they were incredibly strong. Florida went deep red, in unprecedented ways. The trouble for the national party was that the expected 'red wave' elsewhere either underwhelmed, didn't materialize, or receded entirely (with few exceptions in places like Ohio and Iowa). Florida Republicans blew it out. But that did not translate in many important races all over the country.
With those important caveats and disclaimers in place, it certainly looks as though Florida will not be in play as the results roll in on November 5th. Keep in mind that the final RealClearPolitics polling average gave Biden a lead in Florida four years ago. Trump won it by three points. The aggregated polling was off by four percentage points. This year, Trump leads Harris in the Sunshine State by nearly eight points in the same average. Does that seem plausible? If we agree that early mail-in voting is Democrats' strongest batch of votes, followed by early in-person, followed by Election Day voting (voting patterns have gotten redder along this spectrum in the past), then Florida appears to be well on its way to being an early call two weeks from tonight:
STATEWIDE (mail + in-person): Today, the GOP shockingly evaporated the Democrats' mail-in lead and took the lead themselves.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 22, 2024
🔴 Republican: 40.5% [+1.1] (679,702)
🔵 Democratic: 39.4% (660,765)
🟡 NPA: 18.1% (304,680)https://t.co/MqZd9Bpdo5 pic.twitter.com/6hMeHmioDs
This conservative, Florida-based elections analyst also notes that "in 2022 -- the red tsunami -- it took Florida Republicans 3 DAYS to flip the total early vote.In 2024, it took them LESS THAN 1 DAY to overcome the mail-in voting blue wall." Another data point: On the first day or early in-person voting, Miami Dade County was substantially red. That may not feel like a shock, given Ron DeSantis' monster double-digit victory there in the midterms, but recall that Hillary Clinton dominated in Miami Dade. She won it by 30 points. Joe Biden carried it over Trump in 2020, albeit more narrowly. As of right now, it could very well be on a path for Trump to claim it this time. These numbers are fluid, so I'm avoiding overly solid declarations. It's possible, I guess, that the independents will break for Harris in Florida, so the apparent GOP lead is a mirage. But how likely is that? DeSantis won independents by eight points in 2022. Biden won Florida indies in 2020 by 11 points, and still lost the state. The gigantic Republican registration advantage the party has built (after trailing heavily for years) is real and robust.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Florida is looking pretty safe for the GOP this year. Would that success be contained to Florida, and limited redder places, as it was two years ago? Perhaps. But at least in two other sun belt states, there are some potentially concerning omens developing for Democrats. We've seen a lot of the early voting trending female, which would be relatively good news for Team Blue. This, on the other hand, does not bode well for them:
We're already below the total black share of votes we entered 2018, 2020, and 2022 ED with, and it will drop further in the next couple of days.
— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) October 22, 2024
New territory.
Again, things can change. Votes will be flowing in across the country over the course of the next two weeks. But for a major Decision Desk analyst to be talking about 'new territory,' in terms of low black turnout in Georgia, that's probably not what Democrats were hoping to see at this stage. Especially with higher-than-typical Trump defections among black voters expected. Observers will be keeping a close eye on whether Kamala Harris and Democrats generally have an overall turnout problem with black voters, too. It's early to say, one way or the other, but there are some warning signs. Nevada, by the way, is still looking quite close -- but take a peek at this:
The early voting blog is updated!
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 22, 2024
A very big day for Republicans in NV: They now have a rare statewide lead, have reduced the Clark firewall to almost nothing and the rural landslides are immense.
Long way to go, but Republicans had a historic day.https://t.co/Pl43XBLF02
Speaking of close, I'll leave you with this:
Swing States poll by @RedfieldWilton
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 21, 2024
Florida - 🔴 Trump 49-45%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 49-46%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 48-45%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 48-47%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 47-46%
Pennsylvania - 🟡 Tie 48-48%
Michigan - 🟡 Tie 47-47%
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 47-46%
——
SENATE
Wisconsin -… pic.twitter.com/vBZf9JNW0T
