Is This the Best Poll for Trump Yet?

Read on for the new Gallup data referenced in the headline, but first, let's back up for a moment. Yesterday, Rebecca covered some of the newer polling in the presidential race, including CNN and Quinnipiac's pollsters measuring a tied national contest. CNN gave Harris a one-point edge, while the Q-poll had Trump up by a point. I've generally dismissed Quinnipiac surveys for years, given their truly abysmal record of inaccuracy, especially at the state level. Four years ago, the final national Q-poll projected an 11-point Biden victory, a massive, outside-the-margin-of-error miss of nearly seven percentage points. Embarrassing. Quinnipiac showed Biden ahead by five points in Florida, a miss of eight percentage points. All of which is to say that I view any 'data' coming out of that pollster with a jaundiced eye. The obvious, positive spin for Trump is that it seems rather unusual for him to be narrowly leading in a Q-poll of any sort, especially this close to the election. As for the CNN survey, I suspect the Trump campaign would take these national outcomes in a heartbeat if they could:

🇺🇲 National poll by CNN/SSRS

Registered voters
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%

July 22-23 poll: Trump 49-46%
——
Likely voters
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟪 Oliver: 2%
🟩 Stein: 1%
——
Fav/unfav (rvs)
• Walz: 36-32 (net: +4)
• Harris: 45-49 (-4)… pic.twitter.com/Yc376scUgr
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2024

A tie among registered voters, down one among likely voters, an 11-point lead on the economy, and this:

.@ScottJenningsKY: "[Kamala's] got a major problem — it's Joe Biden, and the fact she's his Vice President. In our CNN survey yesterday, 51% of registered voters said that Trump had a successful presidency, only 37% said the same about Biden and Harris... she's effectively… pic.twitter.com/gDDmMeC0FX
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 25, 2024

The public believes the country is on the wrong track and views the Biden-Harris administration as a failure. The retrospective question above, and Trump's 14-point lead on it, is significant. And it's why Harris surrogates and spokespeople are ducking the same core question she did at the debate:

Follow up Q’s on precisely this issue *for the candidate* are essential: https://t.co/TU4cu5EwGB
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 23, 2024

The priority for Team Trump is to underscore that Harris is a continuation of the Biden administration, while raising fair concerns about her even more radical ideas she's espoused. Which brings us to this Gallup poll, which could arguably be one of the best surveys Republicans have gotten all cycle. We recently covered Gallup's movement on Trump and Harris' respective favorability ratings, but this is a different question:

Gallup track record is pretty scarily accurate on the national popular vote by tracking PARTY ID/LEAN... and look at what they predict for this election:

🔵 2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2)
🔵 2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9)
🔵 2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1)
🔵 2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5)
🔴 2024: R+3 (?)

Just… pic.twitter.com/9mQnHRBDs8
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 24, 2024

We don't know if this pattern will hold for the fifth consecutive cycle, but if it even comes close to doing so, there's a very strong chance Donald Trump will be elected. I'll leave you with a few additional polling observations:

I do think it's worth cautioning how tenuous Harris' EC-PV gains are - any meaningful error in MI/WI/PA would quickly restore much of Trump's advantage. This is not a robust edge (unlike Trump '16/20, where he still would have had a big edge even if WI, for ex, was D+5)
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 25, 2024