A new national survey from Gallup contains positive news for the Trump campaign, and concerning data for Team Kamala. While the poll does not test the head-to-head presidential matchup, it does measure voters' impressions of the two major parties' nominees. This poll was in the field for the better part of two weeks, spanning both pre- and post-debate dates. Compared to August, when Kamala Harris was riding a wave of media adulation, this data set shows clear erosion in her favorability ratings. But if this were simply a product of the so-called 'sugar high' wearing off, that wouldn't necessarily explain the corresponding gains Trump has made on the same metrics. Her favorability faltering wouldn't guarantee that his standing would move at all – but it has:
Gallup poll: Favorability Ratings (shift from August)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 18, 2024
Donald Trump
Favorable: 46% (+5)
Unfavorable: 53% (-2)
Kamala Harris
Favorable: 44% (-3)
Unfavorable: 54% (+5)
——
Among independents
Trump: 44-53 (net: -9)
Harris: 35-60 (-25)
#44 (2.5/3.0) | n=1,007 A | 9/3-15… pic.twitter.com/bbBc8Hp0j4
Trump is somewhat unpopular, with a (-7) net favorability rating. Harris is more unpopular, at (-10). Trump has seen a seven-point net gain on these measures since August, while Harris has tumbled by eight points. Her unfavorable rating is up five points over the last month. Notably, among independents, Trump is underwater by nine points, while Harris is at a very weak (-25) with fully 60 percent unfavorability among this important group. Part of this might be because many voters aren't getting what they want from Harris, even among some friendly audiences:
Reporters Tonya Mosley of NPR, Gerren Keith Gaynor of TheGrio and Eugene Daniels of Politico repeatedly pressed Harris for direct answers on other topics, interrupting her multiple times when she veered away from the subject or rambled. She dodged a potentially contentious moment when Mosley stopped her during an answer about gun control. The audience of about 150, including 100 college students, began to signal discomfort when Harris avoided answering a question about whether she would issue an executive order to create a commission to study reparations. Ultimately, she said it would come down to Congress, an answer that seemed to deflate some of the attendees. Some members of the audience also signaled displeasure when she gave an indirect answer about whether she would continue the Biden administration’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war.
People who are unsold on her, and who aren't sure how to square her long list of left-wing positions with her abrupt, substance-free, no-explanations "moderate" makeover. Her strategy has been to simply...not engage in the specifics some doubters are asking for:
Vice President Harris has avoided getting into the nitty-gritty of detailed policy positions as she seeks to win over centrist voters from former President Trump....in general, Harris, who has come under pressure from Republicans to provide more information on her agenda, has not been too detailed. The vice president also has not done very many interviews, and when she has, she’s pivoted to general statements on policy...While not always offering specific details, Harris has moved to the center on some issues compared to when she was a candidate in 2020. Besides dropping her call for a ban on fracking, Harris says she no longer plans to push for a single-payer health care system after backing “Medicare for All” in 2020...Democratic lawmakers have given her a pass on her policy flops and are confident she’s still a progressive at heart.
That's exactly what Socialist Bernie Sanders said on "Meet the Press" recently, attesting that Harris is still a fellow left-winger, but she's saying what she needs to say in order to win the election. Similarly, leftist groups aren't concerned about Harris' border nonsense because they know she doesn't believe a word of it. "A campaign spokesperson declined":
Axios asked Harris' campaign whether she was available for a five- to 10-minute interview to discuss her position on immigration. A campaign spokesperson declined.
— Alex Thompson (@AlexThomp) September 18, 2024
Meanwhile, Joe Biden remains a strikingly unpopular president:
In Gallup's new poll, which shows Harris' favorability rating lower than Trump's (especially among independents), Biden's presidential job approval is 39 percent (& just 31 percent among independents). Anchoring Harris to Biden-Harris administration is a top priority for R's: pic.twitter.com/hfSCl7U9gb
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 18, 2024
Harris is the incumbent, and the country is not pleased with the job her administration has done. Exploiting this is a, if not the, top priority for Republicans and the Trump campaign. I'll leave you with this observation from New York Times columnist Ross Douthat, who is right about the "bimodal" polling. It's difficult to reconcile the Gallup numbers (and some of the other data he references) with another group of polls that indicate she's more comfortably ahead. One example is a national YouGov poll showing Harris up by four points (though some critics are pointing to a D+13 sample as wildly unrealistic). Polls seem to be falling into two categories – one of which would portend a Harris win, the other likely points to a Trump win:
I feel like there's a real bimodality to polling right now; lots of data compatible with Harris +4/5 nationally, other data (right-leaning polls but also Times/Siena, Atlas and these Gallup numbers) indicating a tie or Trump +1, not much in between.https://t.co/k8t4bahY8Y
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) September 18, 2024
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