Tipsheet

Is This the Best Poll for Trump Yet?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  September 26, 2024 10:05 AM

Read on for the new Gallup data referenced in the headline, but first, let's back up for a moment.  Yesterday, Rebecca covered some of the newer polling in the presidential race, including CNN and Quinnipiac's pollsters measuring a tied national contest.  CNN gave Harris a one-point edge, while the Q-poll had Trump up by a point.  I've generally dismissed Quinnipiac surveys for years, given their truly abysmal record of inaccuracy, especially at the state level.  Four years ago, the final national Q-poll projected an 11-point Biden victory, a massive, outside-the-margin-of-error miss of nearly seven percentage points.  Embarrassing.  Quinnipiac showed Biden ahead by five points in Florida, a miss of eight percentage points.  All of which is to say that I view any 'data' coming out of that pollster with a jaundiced eye.  The obvious, positive spin for Trump is that it seems rather unusual for him to be narrowly leading in a Q-poll of any sort, especially this close to the election.  As for the CNN survey, I suspect the Trump campaign would take these national outcomes in a heartbeat if they could:


A tie among registered voters, down one among likely voters, an 11-point lead on the economy, and this:


The public believes the country is on the wrong track and views the Biden-Harris administration as a failure.  The retrospective question above, and Trump's 14-point lead on it, is significant.  And it's why Harris surrogates and spokespeople are ducking the same core question she did at the debate:


The priority for Team Trump is to underscore that Harris is a continuation of the Biden administration, while raising fair concerns about her even more radical ideas she's espoused.  Which brings us to this Gallup poll, which could arguably be one of the best surveys Republicans have gotten all cycle.  We recently covered Gallup's movement on Trump and Harris' respective favorability ratings, but this is a different question:


Relevant context:

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We don't know if this pattern will hold for the fifth consecutive cycle, but if it even comes close to doing so, there's a very strong chance Donald Trump will be elected.  I'll leave you with a few additional polling observations: