There has been plenty of 'doom-scrolling' content and nightmare fuel for Democrats in recent weeks, thanks to the spectacular implosion of their 'conspiracy of silence' Big Lie about President Biden's condition. Yesterday may have provided at least something of a momentary respite for Biden's beleaguered team, with the release of a Washington Post poll showing a tied presidential race (with each major party candidate at 46 percent), as well as slightly better than expected monthly inflation numbers (though overall prices remain approximately 20 percent higher than when Biden took office, which will not and cannot change before the election). Still, as far as talking points go, if Bidenworld is trying to ward off the jackals -- reportedly including Barack Obama, behind the scenes -- a tied national poll coupled with a helpful economic data point and a non-disastrous (though still messy) press conference must feel like a godsend (see more on both below).
They can turn to their internal critics and argue, 'look at what you're doing to our nominee. You've been bleeding him dry in public for two weeks, and he's still tied with Donald Trump. We need to unify right now. You need to stop all of your attacks immediately. Biden is the nominee, and all you're doing is helping to lose a winnable race.' A plausibly-winnable race is the most potent argument they can marshal because it's what their intended audience cares about. So much of the consternation being articulated by elected and media Democrats pertains to Biden's electoral fate, with almost no mention of his manifest inability to perform the extremely demanding job of President of the United States. They care about winning. If he were ahead in the polls, they'd all be clinging to the Big Lie, even after that debate. So if Biden's inner circle can effectively push back against the current 'election viability' conventional wisdom (here's another Dem-aligned poll showing a tight race), they'll seed doubt among some of the naysayers. Maybe we really are needlessly sabotaging someone who can actually win, we should stop. That would be a big win, especially as Biden tries to buy time and push this into and past Chicago.
Another important task for the Biden loyalists is to cast doubt on the idea that someone else (realistically just Kamala Harris) isn't clearly a stronger choice for Democrats. The Post survey mentioned above included lots of findings showing a huge majority of voters see Biden as too old, and that most think he should end his campaign, including a small majority of Democrats. But he's exactly tied on the top line, and then there's this:
“.. just 44% of Americans overall say they'd be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee, with 53% dissatisfied. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, however, satisfaction with Harris reaches 70%, and it's 76% among current Biden supporters.”… pic.twitter.com/cBgyRpgD8f
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) July 11, 2024
Perhaps they can mention these points to DNC delegates they're apparently calling up to 'quell a possible rebellion' at the convention. Majority dissatisfaction with Harris as the hypothetical nominee, even in this survey, which appears to be one of the most Democrat-friendly poll in some time. And that's before the Republicans really went in on her. And as we noted earlier in the week, she matched up worse against Trump than Biden does in recent Emerson poll. Two additional polls also show Harris weaker than Biden against Trump. That might give people some pause. On the other hand, the media would attempt an unprecedented propaganda blitz on her behalf, and Democrats would probably engage in a tribal rally around the nominee, both of which may boost her. The bottom line is she would be a risk, with unknowable dynamics galore. The 'dump Biden' brigade would argue that sticking with him his even riskier. And on the general front of blue malaise, this clip won't trigger the sheer panic of a bad New York Times poll or a flurry of Cook Political Report race shifts, but it certainly won't help Democrats' overall mood much. The Daily Show assembled a focus group of black voters, and it went...unexpectedly:
This Daily Show focus group of Black New York voters did not go as planned. Half of the focus group (3 out of 6) said they would vote for Trump:
— Eric Abbenante (@EricAbbenante) July 11, 2024
"We're an even split. I didn't see that coming."
"I think there's going to be a big shift. I've always been a Democrat. For the most… pic.twitter.com/VmoDyka5ta
"We're an even split, which -- yeah, I didn't see that coming," the comedy correspondent says, to laughter from his subjects. The first guy is a lifelong Democrat who doesn't even want to say Trump's name while admitting he's probably going to vote for him. The three would-be Trump voters all say a major shift among black voter is coming this year, with one woman scolding Democrats for using black issues "as a soap box to stand on...just to get us to come out and vote. And once we vote, and everyone is in place, it's like, what happened?" Maybe all the data showing people of color drifting away from Democrats won't pan out in the actual voting. Perhaps this Daily Show segment is wildly unrepresentative (and a 50/50 split certainly isn't reflective of black voters generally, even with the recent marginal polling improvements). But these things must be unnerving for the Left. I'll leave you with more hope for Team Biden and fresh complications for the 'dump Biden' brigade. Note how the NPR survey also shows Harris in a marginally worse position against Trump than Biden:
After two weeks of brutal overage, consecutive polls (WaPo, NPR) show Biden tied/in the lead. Ignoring other polls (Pew etc), Biden is definitely seeing these ones, likely digging in his heels to stay. And a good number of Dems may be second-guessing the ‘dump Biden’ panic. https://t.co/58Udk171zO
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 12, 2024
How many of the “potential dozens” go through with it, after a few decent polls and the presser? https://t.co/xQvAYAefV2
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 12, 2024
Oh, and after Thursday's inflation number that came in a bit better than expected, today's follow-on report was worse. Biden-Harris inflation is still pummeling Americans:
BREAKING: The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June came in *above* expectations, signaling that Bidenflation isn’t going away anytime soon:
— Conservative War Machine (@WarMachineRR) July 12, 2024
Expected PPI: 2.3%
Actual PPI: 2.6%
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