In case you missed it yesterday, Democrats were thrown into fresh convulsions of panic over the Cook Political Report moving six different 2024 presidential projections in Donald Trump's favor. None of them were earth-shattering, but taken together, they once again painted a picture of a race slipping that's away from Joe Biden and the Democrats. Cook's top analyst shifted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada into 'lean Republican' territory -- hardly a shocker for anyone who's been looking at polling for months -- and nudged Minnesota and New Hampshire from 'likely Democrat' to 'lean Democrat.' She did the same for Nebraska's Second Congressional District, which is relevant due to the state's proportional allocation of electoral votes, based on House districts. Six changes, all away from Biden:
President Biden was narrowly trailing Donald Trump ahead of the June 27 debate. That gap has grown slightly larger since then.
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) July 9, 2024
Given our closely-divided electorate, even a seemingly small two-point shift is significant.https://t.co/AAoW23wKWC
Walter mentioned internal polling she's been privy to that shows Trump's lead in the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania ballooning from a modest four points to up to ten points. If even close to accurate, that would be a five-alarm fire for Democrats. Respected left-leaning elections analyst Dave Wasserman tweeted, "the notion that the presidential is a Toss Up was a stretch even before the debate. Today, Trump has a clear advantage over Biden and a much more plausible path to 270 Electoral votes." Many Democrats who were complicit in the Big Lie over Biden's condition have been frantically insisting since last month's debate that Biden withdraw from the race. He has steadfastly refused, publicly painting such demands as anti-democracy (he won the nearly-uncontested primaries running away) and aiding and abetting Trump. Many members of his party fell in line after that admonition, but others have not, with the Cook forecast spooking many of them anew. As I've been saying since the debate, if the ruling party has any hope of swapping out its incumbent and presumptive nominee for someone else, three conditions would have to be met:
In order for Dems to pull the switcheroo so many of them are panic-fantasizing about, they’d need: Unanimity of purpose, a clear consensus replacement figure, and Joe Biden’s willing participation. As of this afternoon, they appear to be 0-for-3. Wagons circling.
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 28, 2024
That unanimity is still proving quite elusive, and Biden appears totally unwilling to cooperate in such a scheme. But the middle condition feels closer to being met: A growing consensus is that if it's not Biden, it would have to be the Vice President, Kamala Harris. Some observers are floating the fantasy of a 'flash primary,' but that seems supremely unrealistic. It would very likely be Kamala. Are Democrats more confident about that scenario? They arguably shouldn't be:
NEW:
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 9, 2024
Trump +3 against Joe Biden
Trump + 6 against Kamala Harris
They’re stuck https://t.co/tkPSOIW2ZH
Of all the hypothetical match-ups tested, Biden performs best against Trump in this data set. Maybe they'll still decide that while any course of action is risky, the riskiest is staying the course with Biden. Perhaps Harris could perform better, as her polling may be more fluid, considering that she'd need to be rolled out to the country, etc. But at least as a starting point, at least based on this poll (also reflected in other data, but contradicted in other surveys), Harris may not represent an improvement over Biden. The media would puff her up to a breathtaking degree, but her record also includes major landmines that could alienate average voters. Setting aside her bizarre communications struggles, she ran on the left end of the spectrum in her disastrously failed 2019 presidential bid that never survived into 2020. They may determine that making a change for the sake of doing something would be too difficult, especially if the president is adamantly resisting. They may reach the opposite conclusion, however, and that doing anything else may be preferable to the trajectory they're on:
President Joe Biden has a new problem: a competitive race in deep blue New York. Elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are panicking over polls showing a steady erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points four years ago. They’re so worried they’ve been trying to convince the Biden team to pour resources into New York to shore up his campaign and boost Democrats running in a half-dozen swing districts that could determine control of the House...The warning signs are impossible to ignore and have been building over the past year. Two private polls conducted in a swing New York House district and reviewed by POLITICO — one in September and another in March — found former President Donald Trump leading Biden there by 1 point, a virtual tie. And public polls over the last four months found Biden’s lead had winnowed to just 8 points across New York — an unusually narrow gap in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1. “We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine said. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
That could be hyperbole, but it's not a quote Democrats want to be contemplating with less than four months left until the general election. I'll leave you with another factor in this race that looks to be working to Trump's advantage, regardless of the Democratic nominee:
Must read of the am @axios: “Former President Trump is adjusting his agenda, the GOP platform, his vice-presidential plans — even his debate style — to win over more than a half-dozen persuadable voter groups in seven states” https://t.co/7DkDTGxxiP
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) July 10, 2024
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